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FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast

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FiveThirtyEight Politics

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  ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke  

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

 

All

Progress

Duration

Release Date

#200

How The Polls Did In 2024

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls. Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years. But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

19 hrs Ago

28 MINS

28:22

19 hrs Ago

#199

What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term

We are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and everyday Americans have for Trump's second term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

18 Nov 2024

40 MINS

40:36

18 Nov 2024

#198

A 'Realignment' Among Latino Voters

Latino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

14 Nov 2024

41 MINS

41:11

14 Nov 2024

#197

The Best And Worst Post-Election Hot Takes

Since Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to overperform compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

11 Nov 2024

40 MINS

40:35

11 Nov 2024

#196

Donald Trump Wins The Presidency

In this late-night, election-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results showing Donald Trump winning a second presidential term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

06 Nov 2024

35 MINS

35:56

06 Nov 2024

#195

An Hour-By-Hour Guide To Election Night

At long last, Election Day is upon us. In this final pre-results episode, the crew shares a guide for what to expect on election night — from the first poll closures in Indiana, to the last poll closures in Alaska. They set expectations for how long the vote may take to tally and which counties to keep an eye on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

05 Nov 2024

43 MINS

43:41

05 Nov 2024

#194

The Pollercoaster Takes A Final Plunge

Polls were coming in hot and heavy over the weekend! In fact, 164 surveys were entered into the 538 database since Friday. In this Election Day eve episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior researcher Mary Radcliffe and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about what we are seeing in those final polls. They discuss the famed Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer, which showed a rosy picture for Harris, and the battleground polling from the New York Times, which showed results that frustrate some of the trends we've come to expect this cycle. They also share some final thoughts on the election in the run up to the big day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

04 Nov 2024

41 MINS

41:33

04 Nov 2024

#193

Galen’s Cauldron Of Queries

It’s not just election season; it’s spooky season, too. In this Halloween installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew opens up the mailbag and answers listeners’ questions. Does favorability matter? Can bad weather affect turnout? And what would you do with an election crystal ball? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

31 Oct 2024

40 MINS

40:40

31 Oct 2024

#192

Will 2024 Be A Disputed Election?

Looking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that may circulate after the votes are cast, and why this election is seeing more litigation than any before it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

30 Oct 2024

36 MINS

36:34

30 Oct 2024

#191

Do Voters Care About Democracy?

Last week, John Kelly, former President Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump fit the definition of a “fascist.” Democrats have seized on the comment, using it to underline Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies in these final days before Election Day. On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much voters care about democracy. And they look at a new poll that might shed light on the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

28 Oct 2024

36 MINS

36:38

28 Oct 2024

#190

The Most Valuable Data Point

We are awash in data. As Election Day draws near, and new polls continue to pile up, our information overload will only intensify. So today on the 538 Politics podcast, we’re simplifying. We asked 11 very smart people just one question: What is the most valuable data point you’re watching to understand this election? These are their answers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

24 Oct 2024

33 MINS

33:42

24 Oct 2024

#189

How the Diploma Divide Took Over Our Politics

For decades, Republicans were thought of as the country club set, while Democrats were the party of the working class. But increasingly, education has become a larger dividing line in American politics than economic status. This trend has seen college-educated voters move toward the Democratic Party and non-college-educated voters shift toward Republicans. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Matt Grossmann and David Hopkins, authors of "Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics." They explore how this educational divide is reshaping not just electoral outcomes, but the way each party approaches governance and policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

23 Oct 2024

41 MINS

41:16

23 Oct 2024

#188

A New Kind Of Undecided Voter

With Election Day just two weeks away, Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on undecided voters. But the profile of the typical swing voter has changed. Move over, soccer moms. Say hello to … podcast bros? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at who the undecided voters are in this election. They also examine what appears to be a surprisingly competitive Senate race in ruby-red Nebraska. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

21 Oct 2024

39 MINS

39:11

21 Oct 2024

#187

A 538 Election Road Trip

We talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives. In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outcome than their lackluster 2022 performance, and we end in Alaska. Grab your favorite snacks and get in! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

17 Oct 2024

45 MINS

45:58

17 Oct 2024

#186

Weighting For Election Day

With three weeks until Election Day, the 538 crew analyzes the state of what remains an extremely close presidential race. They also wade into the (very nerdy) debate over “weighting by recalled vote” that is roiling the polling community. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

14 Oct 2024

35 MINS

35:11

14 Oct 2024

#185

The Battle For The Airwaves

For those in swing states, political ads are an inescapable part of life. But if you haven’t experienced the blitz firsthand, this episode of the 538 Politics podcast offers a glimpse into the barrage of campaign messages flooding our screens. Erika Franklin Fowler, director of the Wesleyan Media Project and professor of government at Wesleyan University, joins the podcast to break down the wave of ads hitting TVs, phones and browsers this election season. We explore whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris has the upper hand and the topics dominating both national and downballot races. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

10 Oct 2024

48 MINS

48:54

10 Oct 2024

#184

Beneath A Steady Race, A Shifting America

There is officially less than a month until Election Day. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we consider what it would mean for the Electoral College map if the polls are correct in suggesting a racial and generational realignment. We also look at how views of the conflict in the Middle East have evolved in the year since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack. And, with new information about former President Donald Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election, whether his behavior surrounding the last election is shaping Americans' willingness to vote for him this time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

07 Oct 2024

39 MINS

39:23

07 Oct 2024

#183

Vance Performed Well In VP Debate. Will It Matter?

The crew reacts to the first and only vice-presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance in this late-night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

02 Oct 2024

28 MINS

28:37

02 Oct 2024

#182

In A Topsy-Turvy World, The Candidates Stick To These Three Issues

There's a lot going on in the world as we head into the final stretch of the 2024 election: a devastating hurricane, a growing war in the Middle East, multiple high profile scandals and an upcoming VP debate. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks whether any of these big stories are changing the subject of the campaign. They also look at how former President Trump and Vice President Harris are appealing to voters on some of the issues voters say are most important to them: the economy, immigration and abortion. Both Harris and Trump recently gave major economic speeches, Harris talked tough on immigration during a visit to the Southern border and Trump tried to allay concerns about his stance on abortion. But are they changing voters' perceptions? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

30 Sep 2024

43 MINS

43:21

30 Sep 2024

#181

How To Read Polls In 2024

We are in the frantic final weeks of the presidential campaign, which means Americans are obsessing over polling data more than usual. At 538, we cover this stuff year-round. So today on the show, we’re going back to the fundamentals. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a seasoned political hack or a bright-eyed newcomer: Everyone can benefit from our 10 Essentials Of Following Polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

26 Sep 2024

44 MINS

44:23

26 Sep 2024