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FiveThirtyEight Politics

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ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

#200

A New Kind Of Undecided Voter

With Election Day just two weeks away, Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on undecided voters. But the profile of the typical swing voter has changed. Move over, soccer moms. Say hello to … podcast bros? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at who the undecided voters are in this election. They also examine what appears to be a surprisingly competitive Senate race in ruby-red Nebraska. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

Yesterday

39 MINS

39:11

Yesterday

#199

A 538 Election Road Trip

We talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives. In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outcome than their lackluster 2022 performance, and we end in Alaska. Grab your favorite snacks and get in! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

17 Oct 2024

45 MINS

45:58

17 Oct 2024

#198

Weighting For Election Day

With three weeks until Election Day, the 538 crew analyzes the state of what remains an extremely close presidential race. They also wade into the (very nerdy) debate over “weighting by recalled vote” that is roiling the polling community. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

14 Oct 2024

35 MINS

35:11

14 Oct 2024

#197

The Battle For The Airwaves

For those in swing states, political ads are an inescapable part of life. But if you haven’t experienced the blitz firsthand, this episode of the 538 Politics podcast offers a glimpse into the barrage of campaign messages flooding our screens. Erika Franklin Fowler, director of the Wesleyan Media Project and professor of government at Wesleyan University, joins the podcast to break down the wave of ads hitting TVs, phones and browsers this election season. We explore whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris has the upper hand and the topics dominating both national and downballot races. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

10 Oct 2024

48 MINS

48:54

10 Oct 2024

#196

Beneath A Steady Race, A Shifting America

There is officially less than a month until Election Day. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we consider what it would mean for the Electoral College map if the polls are correct in suggesting a racial and generational realignment. We also look at how views of the conflict in the Middle East have evolved in the year since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack. And, with new information about former President Donald Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election, whether his behavior surrounding the last election is shaping Americans' willingness to vote for him this time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

07 Oct 2024

39 MINS

39:23

07 Oct 2024

#195

Vance Performed Well In VP Debate. Will It Matter?

The crew reacts to the first and only vice-presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance in this late-night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

02 Oct 2024

28 MINS

28:37

02 Oct 2024

#194

In A Topsy-Turvy World, The Candidates Stick To These Three Issues

There's a lot going on in the world as we head into the final stretch of the 2024 election: a devastating hurricane, a growing war in the Middle East, multiple high profile scandals and an upcoming VP debate. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks whether any of these big stories are changing the subject of the campaign. They also look at how former President Trump and Vice President Harris are appealing to voters on some of the issues voters say are most important to them: the economy, immigration and abortion. Both Harris and Trump recently gave major economic speeches, Harris talked tough on immigration during a visit to the Southern border and Trump tried to allay concerns about his stance on abortion. But are they changing voters' perceptions? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

30 Sep 2024

43 MINS

43:21

30 Sep 2024

#193

How To Read Polls In 2024

We are in the frantic final weeks of the presidential campaign, which means Americans are obsessing over polling data more than usual. At 538, we cover this stuff year-round. So today on the show, we’re going back to the fundamentals. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a seasoned political hack or a bright-eyed newcomer: Everyone can benefit from our 10 Essentials Of Following Polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

26 Sep 2024

44 MINS

44:23

26 Sep 2024

#192

Is Trump Losing His Electoral College Advantage?

As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They discuss whether early voting data can offer clues about November's outcome, analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the chamber. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

23 Sep 2024

41 MINS

41:05

23 Sep 2024

#191

Has Harris Changed The Election For Black Voters?

Earlier this year, it seemed like the long-standing pattern of Black voters as steadfast Democrats was shifting, with a record-high percentage choosing former President Donald Trump in survey after survey. However, Vice President Kamala Harris's candidacy has sparked new enthusiasm among Black voters, boosting both engagement and her popularity. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen examines these shifts with Chryl Laird, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland, and Kiana Cox, a senior researcher at the Pew Research Center, exploring the evolving political landscape and what Harris's run means for Black voter dynamics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

19 Sep 2024

42 MINS

42:16

19 Sep 2024

#190

Gen Z’s Historic Gender Gap

The U.S. Secret Service thwarted another apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen speaks with 538's Mary Radcliffe and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik about how Americans view political violence. They also look at whether presidential election polls have shifted in response to last week's debate and discuss a recent Gallup analysis showing a yawning gender gap among young Americans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

16 Sep 2024

41 MINS

41:59

16 Sep 2024

#189

Harris Trolls Defensive Trump In Debate

The crew reacts to the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in this late night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

11 Sep 2024

33 MINS

33:14

11 Sep 2024

#188

Presidential Debates Do Matter

As an extremely close presidential campaign heads into the homestretch, economic news abounds. The jobs report released last week fell short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve appears ready to cut interest rates later this month. Will any of it matter? Or have Americans generally made up their minds about this economy? Plus, the crew previews Tuesday night’s presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, and they test their knowledge of historic debate moments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

09 Sep 2024

38 MINS

38:21

09 Sep 2024

#187

From Here To Election Day

Election Day is exactly two months away, meaning the final stretch of the presidential campaign is upon us. On Tuesday’s show, we assessed the current state of the race and how we got here. Today, we look ahead to the knowns and unknowns that could shake up the race in the coming weeks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

05 Sep 2024

26 MINS

26:09

05 Sep 2024

#186

Summer Is Over. Election Season Is Here.

Labor Day is behind us and the conventional final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign is here. There will be a rush of advertising, debates, more urgent attention paid to jobs reports, and October surprises. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at where we are in the campaign and how we got here. In the second episode this week, we'll look at what to expect over the coming two months. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

03 Sep 2024

34 MINS

34:08

03 Sep 2024

#185

How Trump And Harris Would Tackle The Economy

This month both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump released a slate of economic proposals in an attempt to gain the upper hand on the issue most important to voters. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about the current state of the economy, voter perceptions of it and how the candidates’ proposals might shape both of those factors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

29 Aug 2024

40 MINS

40:51

29 Aug 2024

#184

How RFK Jr.'s Exit Changes The Race

Just as the Democratic National Convention wrapped up, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the 2024 race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to parse the effect that both events could have on the presidential race. They also look to Washington state's primary for an indication of how the House popular vote might play out this fall. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

26 Aug 2024

36 MINS

36:40

26 Aug 2024

#183

Harris Goes Big On Night 4 Of The DNC

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

23 Aug 2024

27 MINS

27:29

23 Aug 2024

#182

Democrats Pitch 'Freedom' On Night 3 Of The DNC

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the third night of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

22 Aug 2024