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FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast

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FiveThirtyEight Politics

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·

  ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke  

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

 

All

Progress

Duration

Release Date

#200

What Americans Think About Trump's Plans

President Donald Trump begins his second term as one of the least popular presidents in modern polling history. Yet, many of his policies — such as those surrounding DEI programs and immigration — are more popular than ever. What do Americans want from Trump’s second term? The crew delves into this question, exploring thermostatic public opinion, Trump’s strategy of testing the waters on key issues and the nuances of question wording. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

Yesterday

37 MINS

37:31

Yesterday

#199

Will Trump's Agenda Make It Through Congress?

The first few days of President Donald Trump’s second term have featured an avalanche of executive orders. But Trump’s authority as commander-in-chief will only take his agenda so far. His most ambitious goals must pass through Congress, where Republicans control both chambers, albeit by slim margins. On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen is joined by Rachael Bade, Politico’s Capitol Hill bureau chief and senior Washington columnist. They discuss congressional Republicans’ plans for the coming months, what they’re saying behind closed doors and what, if anything, Democrats plan to do to resist Trump’s agenda. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

23 Jan 2025

35 MINS

35:41

23 Jan 2025

#198

Trump's Second Term Begins

The crew reacts to President Donald Trump’s second inaugural address, as well as Trump’s plans for issuing dozens of executive orders. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

21 Jan 2025

48 MINS

48:20

21 Jan 2025

#197

The Highs and Lows of Biden’s Presidency

With just days remaining in President Joe Biden’s term, the crew reflects on the past four years and tries to determine how this administration will be remembered. What were the high points, the low points and the most notable moments? They discuss Biden’s industrial policymaking, the vaccine rollout, inflation and the tumultuous summer of 2024. And they cover the destructive wildfires currently impacting Los Angeles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

16 Jan 2025

49 MINS

49:02

16 Jan 2025

#196

How Serious Is Trump About Greenland?

With one week remaining before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, the nation is orienting itself towards his policy goals. Will they include the addition of new American territory? On this episode of the podcast, the crew breaks down Trump’s recent comments about Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal. They also unpack how they are thinking about these types of comments from Trump — should they be taken literally, seriously or both? And, the crew discusses former President Jimmy Carter’s life and legacy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

13 Jan 2025

31 MINS

31:08

13 Jan 2025

#195

Campaign Throwback: 'The Beer Question'

This is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our third installment: "the beer question." After the 2000 and 2004 elections, political observers remarked that Republican George W. Bush defeated his Democratic opponents in part because he was the candidate who voters would rather "have a beer with." The phrase quickly became a cliche for evaluating a candidate's likability or relatability. But is it really how voters choose their presidents? This episode originally aired in May 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

09 Jan 2025

24 MINS

24:37

09 Jan 2025

#194

What Will The Politics of 2025 Look Like?

What’s on the horizon for American politics in 2025? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the team dives into what lies ahead. They start with Washington, analyzing President-elect Donald Trump’s first 100 days and the challenges Republicans face with their slim congressional majority. Next, they explore how public opinion on critical issues like the economy and immigration could evolve with Trump back in office. Finally, the crew turns to 2025’s pivotal electoral races, breaking down what’s at stake in the year to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

06 Jan 2025

45 MINS

45:19

06 Jan 2025

#193

Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'

This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Republican Bob Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct? This episode originally aired in May. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

30 Dec 2024

29 MINS

29:46

30 Dec 2024

#192

Campaign Throwback: 'The Economy, Stupid'

This is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. Our first installment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It's a trope that dates back to Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. Clinton's chief strategist at the time, James Carville, had three main messages for his staff to remember: 1) Change vs. more of the same 2) The economy, stupid, and 3) Don't forget about healthcare. The second message was memorialized in a 1993 documentary about the Clinton campaign called "The War Room," and has taken on a life of its own in the field of election analysis. But is it accurate? This episode originally aired in May. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

23 Dec 2024

25 MINS

25:41

23 Dec 2024

#191

What We're Putting In Our 2024 Time Capsule

What would you save to remember 2024 in politics? In the second part of our end-of-year series on the 538 Politics podcast, the crew builds a time capsule to capture the political essence of the year. From a Dean Phillips bumper sticker to President-elect Donald Trump’s 16-page indictment and the 538 polling average, they debate what deserves to be preserved. Plus, a discussion on the looming government shutdown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

19 Dec 2024

42 MINS

42:42

19 Dec 2024

#190

Our 2024 Superlatives

How do you measure a year? In votes cast? Money spent? Or in “seasons of love”? On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to find out by making a yearbook and assigning superlatives. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

16 Dec 2024

42 MINS

42:54

16 Dec 2024

#189

What Happens To Trump's Legal Cases Now?

Earlier this year, as President-elect Donald Trump mounted his campaign to return to the presidency, it seemed like one of the biggest barriers to his election would be the battery of criminal and civil cases that had been filed against him. Now, as we near Trump’s inauguration day, what will happen to them? Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the podcast to unpack the fate of the legal cases against Trump. She provides clarity on the status of the major cases, discusses the potential impact of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling on Trump’s presidency, and examines President Joe Biden’s use of the pardon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

12 Dec 2024

40 MINS

40:17

12 Dec 2024

#188

A Topsy-Turvy Week In Review

What even happened last week?! On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew catches Galen up as he returns from a rare week away from his push notifications. They take a look at President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, the status of House Republicans’ slim majority, and examine the polling on President Joe Biden’s controversial pardon of his son Hunter. They also turn an eye to foreign affairs, checking in on recent developments in South Korea and Syria. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

09 Dec 2024

32 MINS

32:42

09 Dec 2024

#187

Your Post-Election Questions, Answered

In this post-election mailbag episode, the crew tackles your burning questions about the 2024 election. Why did Democrats have lower turnout than four years ago? Is misinformation skewing some voters’ view of reality? Did Harris lose because of her candidacy and campaign style, or due to the broader political environment? And where does post-election voter data even come from, anyways? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

05 Dec 2024

48 MINS

48:35

05 Dec 2024

#186

The 2026 Midterms Are Only 701 Days Away

Galen is out today, so 538’s Nathaniel Rakich steps in to guide the crew through the numbers. They unpack President Joe Biden’s surprise decision to pardon his son Hunter, exploring the historical context for such a move and how it might resonate with the American public. They also turn their attention to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing the prospects for both the House and Senate. They discuss whether Republicans can hang on to their trifecta, and examine the challenges Democrats face in their efforts to reclaim control of Congress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

02 Dec 2024

39 MINS

39:30

02 Dec 2024

#185

Voters Lose Their Appetite For Incumbents

In this Thanksgiving week installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew sits down for a three-course discussion. First, a new poll suggests that economic sentiment data might be even more warped by partisanship than we thought. After that, it’s another round of "Buy, Sell, Hold." Will the Senate confirm Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Will President-elect Donald Trump pardon himself? Finally, the crew considers whether 2024 will go down as the death knell of the incumbent advantage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

25 Nov 2024

42 MINS

42:14

25 Nov 2024

#184

How The Polls Did In 2024

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls. Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years. But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

21 Nov 2024

28 MINS

28:22

21 Nov 2024

#183

What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term

We are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and everyday Americans have for Trump's second term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

18 Nov 2024

40 MINS

40:36

18 Nov 2024

#182

A 'Realignment' Among Latino Voters

Latino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

14 Nov 2024

41 MINS

41:11

14 Nov 2024

#181

The Best And Worst Post-Election Hot Takes

Since Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to overperform compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit [podcastchoices.com/adchoices] (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) ... Read more

11 Nov 2024

40 MINS

40:35

11 Nov 2024