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Beyond Markets

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Julius Baer

“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

#294

The Week in Markets: Normalising rates and US elections on the horizon

In this episode, we take a look at the US fixed income markets coming out of the third quarter of 2024, and what to expect in this space as we near the November 5 US presidential election. We also briefly discuss how other G10 and Emerging Market central banks have shifted following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut in September. It’s a different story in China, however, with its central bank just announcing reductions in the Loan Prime Rates. This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer. ... Read more

Yesterday

06 MINS

06:16

Yesterday

#293

The technical take: are we set for a year-end rally?

After a strong September for equities, the question now is if we can expect a year-end rally. An analysis of the charts provides a clear answer. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the significance of the steepening yield curve and the depreciating US dollar for equities, as well as which regions and sectors are set to outperform over the remainder of the year. 00:38 – Introduction to speakers and topic01:00 – What is technical analysis?03:03 – What do September’s equity market returns mean for the rest of the year?04:34 – What does a depreciating US dollar mean for equities?06:02 – How significant is the steepening yield curve?07:46 – Which regions are set to perform better?08:30 – What’s next for Chinese equities?09:35 – Which sectors should do well now?10:25 – After reaching new all-time highs, how is gold set to perform now?11:30 – Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

16 Oct 2024

13 MINS

13:29

16 Oct 2024

#292

The Week in Markets: Mixed takeaways from the MoF presser

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we provide a review of the latest press conference of China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), how investors see it and the outlook of the Chinese equity market going forward. We also briefly discuss the latest outlook of the Fed interest rate, the implications of the US Presidential election and the ongoing reporting season. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer. ... Read more

14 Oct 2024

07 MINS

07:50

14 Oct 2024

#291

Geopolitics and beyond - What's powering oil and gold?

As we move into Q4 2024, gold prices continue their remarkable climb, while oil faces a more uncertain future amid heightened geopolitical tensions. What’s fueling these divergent trends in two of the world’s most important commodities, and where could they be headed next? Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they offer expert analysis and insights on the key factors shaping the markets for gold and oil. 00:19 Introduction 00:41 Our gold and oil forecast 01:55 Are geopolitics flare ups driving up gold prices? 2:52 Asia and Western demand 3:46 The impact of central bank gold holdings 5:04 Why has gold continued to rise despite China’s pause in gold purchases 6:02 Speculative gold positioning 7:18 Significant redemptions in Western ETFs 8:15 Where can gold go in a rate easing cycle? 9:25 Recession risks 10:20 Geopolitical noise impacting oil 11:00 Escalating conflict – where can oil go? 12:42 China’s stimulus – is there upside for oil? 14:01 The supply and demand picture ... Read more

10 Oct 2024

16 MINS

16:21

10 Oct 2024

#290

The Week in Markets – Halloween comes early

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger than expected non-farm payrolls data has spooked US markets, while the much awaited press conference by China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on Tuesday disappointed. More economic data releases in upcoming weeks should provide greater clarity as to the likelihood of ‘no landing’ in the US and the slowdown in China. We expect the Asian REITs to continue doing well as expectations of lower rates remain intact. This episode was recorded on October 8, 2024. ... Read more

09 Oct 2024

07 MINS

07:23

09 Oct 2024

#289

What is the cost of obesity?

In this episode we are joined by Damien Ng, one of Julius Baer’s next generation analysts, to discuss the background and economic significance of obesity drugs. ... Read more

03 Oct 2024

14 MINS

14:46

03 Oct 2024

#288

The Week in Markets: Japan slides, China bounces

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the newly elected Japan Prime Minister and the market response, as well as how his potential policies affect our investment thesis in Japan equities. For the Chinese market, we share a few data points on how strong inflows have been, why we think the tactical rally may extend and what this means for investors. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, the China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer. ... Read more

01 Oct 2024

07 MINS

07:17

01 Oct 2024

#287

In Conversation with GROW - Is the China rally different this time?

In this monthly China update, our experts analyse if the big rally in China equities has legs, following last Tuesday's "bazooka" policy announcements from China's central bank. They also take a closer look at recent trading flows and discuss what trends can be expected in currencies and stocks. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. ... Read more

01 Oct 2024

26 MINS

26:25

01 Oct 2024

#286

China’s policy bazooka

The Chinese financial regulators recently announced a series of monetary measures with an aim of supporting the economy. In this podcast, we discuss how effective the policies are, whether this is just another bounce or if it marks the beginning of a sustainable rally, and what this means for investors. This podcast is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer. ... Read more

25 Sep 2024

06 MINS

06:38

25 Sep 2024

#285

The Week in Markets: After the Fed cut

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the outlook of the US interest rate path after the larger-than-expected 50 basis points cut and the implications for different assets. We also comment on the recent bounce of the offshore Chinese equity market and our strategy around that. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Bank Julius Baer. ... Read more

24 Sep 2024

06 MINS

06:47

24 Sep 2024

#284

The Fed’s rate cut and implications for investors

At the much-anticipated US Federal Reserve meeting on 18 September 2024, the monetary policy easing cycle finally began in the US with an announcement of a 50 basis point rate cut. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, and Mischa Anand, Julius Baer’s Head of Advisory in Zurich, talk to Helen Freer about the significance of the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, what it means for the economy and the implications for investors. 00:39 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:10 – Was a 50bp cut by the Fed appropriate?04:06 – What does the rate cut mean for the economy and investors?08:53 – Given a recession is not our base case, what is our macroeconomic outlook?13:03 – What about the outlook for equities now that the Fed easing cycle has started?15:06 - Does this mean we’re likely to see volatility ahead?17:14 - Where does the Fed go from here?20:08 – How significant is the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle for other central banks and the rest of the world?23:07 - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

23 Sep 2024

25 MINS

25:10

23 Sep 2024

#283

Investing in equities in Q4 2024

We expect volatility in equity markets to remain elevated as we head towards the end of the year, amidst uncertainty around the upcoming US election, seasonal factors, and lingering fears of an economic slowdown. It therefore seems timely to look at what our analysts take into account when it comes to stock selection. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about how his team approaches the process of stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that are set to offer good investment opportunities in the coming months. 00:32 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:16 – Our approach to stock selection02:33 – Market Outlook into year-end 202404:13 – Information Technology: our preferences06:27 – Healthcare: more than just large-cap pharma09:06 – Industrials: focus on cyclical & structural growth opportunities11:22 – Opportunities across sectors12:01 - US election outcome - implications for stocks13:33 – Summary and conclusion Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

18 Sep 2024

16 MINS

16:00

18 Sep 2024

#282

The Week in Markets: Hints of a 50 basis point rate cut

Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index had its worst week of the year on the idea that the economy was weakening. Last week was its best week of the year, on the idea the Federal Reserve might cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the traditional 25, when it meets this Wednesday. Expectations have changed following two articles in the Wall Street Journal raising the prospect for a 50 basis point cut, and comments from three former Fed officials who each made a case for a 50 basis point cut. In July, the consensus was looking for Q3 S&P 500 index annual earnings growth of almost 7%. Now it’s looking for just 4%. However, the pace of growth is expected to improve thereafter; to 11% in Q4, and 13% and 14% respectively in Q1 and Q2 of next year. ... Read more

16 Sep 2024

11 MINS

11:57

16 Sep 2024

#281

US Presidential Race 2024: Cutting through the noise

On Tuesday night, Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris faced off for the first time at the US presidential debate, each presenting two starkly differing visions for the country. Join Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer as they analyse the implications of each candidate's policy proposals, and how investors can navigate the potential shifts in the political landscape. 1:15 The significance of the US presidential election 3:29 How might Trump’s tariffs impact the economy? 6:06 Trump’s energy policy and inflation 8:18 Can the Fed keep its independence? 9:34 Trump’s tax policy and potential deficit impact 11:53 How can investors position in a Trump sweep? 13:19 Harris’ tax policy and potential deficit impact 15:37 Do price controls actually work? 18:37 How might a Harris victory impact the economy? 20:20 Why have bond markets not responded more significantly yet? 21:38 What the polls are saying 23:07 Predicting the outcome 24:30 A very tight race ... Read more

12 Sep 2024

26 MINS

26:35

12 Sep 2024

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#294

The Week in Markets: Normalising rates and US elections on the horizon

#293

The technical take: are we set for a year-end rally?

#292

The Week in Markets:​ Mixed takeaways from the MoF presser

#291

Geopolitics and beyond - What's powering oil and gold?

#290

The Week in Markets – Halloween comes early

#289

What is the cost of obesity?

#288

The Week in Markets: Japan slides, China bounces

#287

​In Conversation with GROW - Is the China rally different this time?

#286

China’s policy bazooka

#285

The Week in Markets: After the Fed cut

#284

The Fed’s rate cut and implications for investors

#283

Investing in equities in Q4 2024

#282

The Week in Markets: Hints of a 50 basis point rate cut

#281

US Presidential Race 2024: Cutting through the noise

The Week in Markets: Mixed takeaways from the MoF presser

In Conversation with GROW - Is the China rally different this time?