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Beyond Markets
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Julius Baer
“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
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The Week in Markets: Japan slides, China bounces
In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the newly elected Japan Prime Minister and the market response, as well as how his potential policies affect our investment thesis in Japan equities. For the Chinese market, we share a few data points on how strong inflows have been, why we think the tactical rally may extend and what this means for investors.
This episode is presented by Richard Tang, the China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.
01 Oct 2024
07 MINS
07:17
01 Oct 2024
In Conversation with GROW - Is the China rally different this time?
In this monthly China update, our experts analyse if the big rally in China equities has legs, following last Tuesday's "bazooka" policy announcements from China's central bank. They also take a closer look at recent trading flows and discuss what trends can be expected in currencies and stocks.
This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.
01 Oct 2024
26 MINS
26:25
01 Oct 2024
China’s policy bazooka
The Chinese financial regulators recently announced a series of monetary measures with an aim of supporting the economy. In this podcast, we discuss how effective the policies are, whether this is just another bounce or if it marks the beginning of a sustainable rally, and what this means for investors.
This podcast is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.
25 Sep 2024
06 MINS
06:38
25 Sep 2024
The Week in Markets: After the Fed cut
In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the outlook of the US interest rate path after the larger-than-expected 50 basis points cut and the implications for different assets. We also comment on the recent bounce of the offshore Chinese equity market and our strategy around that.
This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Bank Julius Baer.
24 Sep 2024
06 MINS
06:47
24 Sep 2024
The Fed’s rate cut and implications for investors
At the much-anticipated US Federal Reserve meeting on 18 September 2024, the monetary policy easing cycle finally began in the US with an announcement of a 50 basis point rate cut.
In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, and Mischa Anand, Julius Baer’s Head of Advisory in Zurich, talk to Helen Freer about the significance of the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, what it means for the economy and the implications for investors.
00:39 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:10 – Was a 50bp cut by the Fed appropriate?04:06 – What does the rate cut mean for the economy and investors?08:53 – Given a recession is not our base case, what is our macroeconomic outlook?13:03 – What about the outlook for equities now that the Fed easing cycle has started?15:06 - Does this mean we’re likely to see volatility ahead?17:14 - Where does the Fed go from here?20:08 – How significant is the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle for other central banks and the rest of the world?23:07 - Closing remarks
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
23 Sep 2024
25 MINS
25:10
23 Sep 2024
Investing in equities in Q4 2024
We expect volatility in equity markets to remain elevated as we head towards the end of the year, amidst uncertainty around the upcoming US election, seasonal factors, and lingering fears of an economic slowdown. It therefore seems timely to look at what our analysts take into account when it comes to stock selection.
In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about how his team approaches the process of stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that are set to offer good investment opportunities in the coming months.
00:32 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:16 – Our approach to stock selection02:33 – Market Outlook into year-end 202404:13 – Information Technology: our preferences06:27 – Healthcare: more than just large-cap pharma09:06 – Industrials: focus on cyclical & structural growth opportunities11:22 – Opportunities across sectors12:01 - US election outcome - implications for stocks13:33 – Summary and conclusion
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
18 Sep 2024
16 MINS
16:00
18 Sep 2024
The Week in Markets: Hints of a 50 basis point rate cut
Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index had its worst week of the year on the idea that the economy was weakening. Last week was its best week of the year, on the idea the Federal Reserve might cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the traditional 25, when it meets this Wednesday. Expectations have changed following two articles in the Wall Street Journal raising the prospect for a 50 basis point cut, and comments from three former Fed officials who each made a case for a 50 basis point cut. In July, the consensus was looking for Q3 S&P 500 index annual earnings growth of almost 7%. Now it’s looking for just 4%. However, the pace of growth is expected to improve thereafter; to 11% in Q4, and 13% and 14% respectively in Q1 and Q2 of next year.
16 Sep 2024
11 MINS
11:57
16 Sep 2024
US Presidential Race 2024: Cutting through the noise
On Tuesday night, Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris faced off for the first time at the US presidential debate, each presenting two starkly differing visions for the country.
Join Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer as they analyse the implications of each candidate's policy proposals, and how investors can navigate the potential shifts in the political landscape.
1:15 The significance of the US presidential election
3:29 How might Trump’s tariffs impact the economy?
6:06 Trump’s energy policy and inflation
8:18 Can the Fed keep its independence?
9:34 Trump’s tax policy and potential deficit impact
11:53 How can investors position in a Trump sweep?
13:19 Harris’ tax policy and potential deficit impact
15:37 Do price controls actually work?
18:37 How might a Harris victory impact the economy?
20:20 Why have bond markets not responded more significantly yet?
21:38 What the polls are saying
23:07 Predicting the outcome
24:30 A very tight race
12 Sep 2024
26 MINS
26:35
12 Sep 2024
What is 360 Wealth Management and why does it matter?
In this episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Nicolas de Skowronski, Head Wealth Management Solutions and member of the Executive Board, and Sonia Goessi, Head Region Switzerland and Europe and member of the Executive Board, to discuss Julius Baer’s 360-degree approach to wealth management and why it is important for everyone.
12 Sep 2024
15 MINS
15:06
12 Sep 2024
The Week in Markets: Recent economic data confirms cooling, but gives no hint of recession
August employment data show a labour market that is continuing to cool, but not at an alarming rate. The three Federal Reserve officials spoke last week all hinted the impending rate cut cycle could be an aggressive one. But the futures market is still pricing a higher chance of a 25 basis point cut than a 50 basis point one at next week’s meeting. Most political analysts expect Vice President Harris to fare less well than former President Trump in this week’s debate, so there is more upside for her. But for the first time, renowned political statistician Nate Silver’s Electoral College model puts Trump ahead of Harris.
09 Sep 2024
13 MINS
13:08
09 Sep 2024
In Conversation with GROW – China's Recent Policy Moves and Market Trends
In this monthly China update, our experts analyse recent market movements and their implications for investors. They also discuss China’s property market, the evolving policy framework and its impact on Chinese households, the strengthening of the RMB and resulting currency trades, as well as the latest views on gold and Chinese government bonds.
This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.
05 Sep 2024
31 MINS
31:03
05 Sep 2024
The Week in Markets: Good economic data eases recession concerns
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rising 2.6% y/y in July is a perfectly acceptable reading for the market. Excluding the notoriously lagged housing component, it would be 2.1%, right where the Federal Reserve (Fed) wants it to be. However, inflation has less relevance for the market now that the Fed has made it clear that its focus is on employment. Initial jobless claims have returned to 230,000, and the Q2 annualised GDP has been revised upwards to 3.0% q/q, both suggesting that the economy is far from entering a recession. The Chinese government may allow homeowners to refinance as much as USD5.4trn of mortgages, which would be good for consumer sentiment. The dollar/renminbi exchange rate has broken an important support line. A rising renminbi tends to lift other Asian currencies. Usually, when money goes into a currency, the assets denominated in that currency see a lift too.
This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
03 Sep 2024
07 MINS
07:22
03 Sep 2024
The Week in Markets: Federal Reserve says “we will do everything we can to support a strong labour m...
Three weeks ago, there were concerns of a new Black Monday, similar to the one in 1987. Today, global equities have reached a new high. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole focused on the labour market, where he said that the cooling is unmistakable. However, the Challenger Report showed only 26,000 job cuts in July, much lower than the 20-year average of 63,000 per month. A closer look at the rise in unemployment shows that much of it is coming from new entrants to the labour force who have not yet found jobs, leaving them still in the ranks of the unemployed. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
26 Aug 2024
10 MINS
10:31
26 Aug 2024
Japan Equities: Short-term challenges, long-term opportunities
How should investors position in Japan markets in light of the recent intense volatility in Japanese indices?
Join Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research Asia at Bank Julius Baer, and Alexander Treves, Managing Director and Head of Investment Specialists, EMAP Equities at JP Morgan Asset Management, as they share their expert perspectives on how Japanese stocks are likely to fare in a rising Yen environment. They also explore the outlook for the Bank of Japan, and examine critical factors shaping Japan’s economy, including inflation trends and ongoing corporate reforms.
26 Aug 2024
23 MINS
23:19
26 Aug 2024
Energy, efficiency and earnings: the Bitcoin mining story
The Bitcoin blockchain needs miners to function. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks to Helen Freer about the Bitcoin mining ecosystem, covering topics including how the Bitcoin mining process works, what artificial intelligence has to do with it, and how mining activity influences the overall market dynamics.
00:51 Why has Bitcoin mining become such an important topic lately?03:01 How does mining actually work? 03:47 How do energy costs affect the profitability of Bitcoin miners?05:23 What is the hashrate?06:46 How does mining activity influence market dynamics?07:52 What drives the profitability of Bitcoin miners?09:28 What does artificial intelligence have to do with Bitcoin mining? 10:50 How might the outcome of the US election impact Bitcoin mining?12:08 The outlook for Bitcoin miners and the Bitcoin market
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
21 Aug 2024
16 MINS
16:37
21 Aug 2024
US Q2 2024 Earnings Season - Five key takeaways
As of 14th of August, over 92% of companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings for the second quarter of 2024. What have we observed so far, and what trends do we see emerging?
Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Equities Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer, presents five key takeaways from this earnings season.
00:44 Earnings more resilient than revenues02:29 A broadening of growth03:27 Technology continues to dominate, but the narrative is shifting05:19 Weakness in Consumer sector06:36 Forward earnings guidance remains constructive
20 Aug 2024
08 MINS
08:56
20 Aug 2024
The Week in Markets: Enjoy the calm week, or maybe not.
In this episode, we share where we are in stock markets after the big rebound we saw in the last 2 weeks. We will also have 2 key central bankers speaking at important events.
This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia).
19 Aug 2024
07 MINS
07:40
19 Aug 2024
The Week in Markets: Navigating through the inflection point
Markets have been dominated by extreme bouts of volatility in the past few weeks, such as US equities seeing 3-5% intraday drawdowns, and the Japanese Yen appreciating almost 10% in just 3 weeks. Meanwhile, concerns of overhype in the AI theme and US recession fears feature prominently.
Join Eric Mak from Julius Baer’s Equity Research Asia team, as he shares insights on how to navigate this turbulence.
12 Aug 2024
07 MINS
07:15
12 Aug 2024
India - The next phase of growth
"Our time has come, but we must kick the ball to score the goal." In this episode, Nilesh Shah, Managing Director at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, shares his insights on India's remarkable economic growth, challenges ahead, and the key risks investors should be aware of. He also highlights his takeaways from the recent Union Budget and Economic Survey Report.
This episode is hosted by Rishabh Saksena, Head of Investment Specialists Asia at Julius Baer.
07 Aug 2024
10 MINS
10:52
07 Aug 2024
The Week in Markets: Intense start to August
This episode was recorded on August 5, 2024.
The intensity of the selloff in markets has taken many investors by surprise, with Japan's Nikkei index tumbling around 18% in the past 5 days. Weaker than expected US labour data also triggered the Sahm rule, a signal of recession, and has spooked US equity markets as well.
This episode is presented by Jen-Ai Chua, Equities Analyst at Julius Baer.
06 Aug 2024
08 MINS
08:10
06 Aug 2024
Asia turns a corner amid global equity turmoil (Moving Markets)
This is a special update from Julius Baer's partner show, Moving Markets.
Listen to our daily updates on Moving Markets at the links below:Apple Podcasts: [https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast/moving-markets-daily-news/id1628789317] (https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast/moving-markets-daily-news/id1628789317) Spotify: [https://open.spotify.com/show/2AYJMvVqqIavsPP7v4YxEs?si=tpGFjNXYQYWD2NfLtI2XCA] (https://open.spotify.com/show/2AYJMvVqqIavsPP7v4YxEs?si=tpGFjNXYQYWD2NfLtI2XCA)
After the global stock-market rout accelerated yesterday, with losses cascading across tech shares and Japanese equities crashing by the most in over a decade, Japanese stock indices have staged a turnaround and are leading gains in Asia today. In today’s special episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, shares his insights into the latest equity market developments and how he see things going forward. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on digital assets and talks about the prospects of a Trump trade.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:40 Equity market developments: Christian Gattiker (Head of Equity Strategy)
09:22 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
13:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
06 Aug 2024
14 MINS
14:16
06 Aug 2024
In Conversation with GROW – August 2024 Edition
In this monthly China update, our experts discuss their key takeaways from China’s Third Plenum and Politburo meeting. They also analyse the effect of recent surprise rate cuts, and the so-called “cash for clunkers” program in boosting consumption. They also discuss the Chinese equity market in the context of an ongoing sector rotation in US tech stocks, strengthening of the Japanese Yen, as well as latest developments in the US-China chip dispute.
This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.
04 Aug 2024
30 MINS
30:33
04 Aug 2024
The Week in Markets: A correction inside a bull market
When the market goes down, people look for reasons. The one most cited now is the idea that Artificial Intelligence will not be as profitable as expected. With June Personal Consumption Expenditure Price index showing inflation is nicely under control, the Federal Reserve should indicate it will cut rates in September, when it meets this week. History is on the side of the S&P 500 index being nicely higher a year after the first rate cut in a rate cut cycle, as long as there is no recession. We forecast US GDP growth at 2.1% next year. The past 4 economic expansions since the “Great Moderation” began in 1982 lasted on average 103 months, while the current expansion is just 51 months old.
This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
30 Jul 2024
12 MINS
12:22
30 Jul 2024
The Week in Markets: A consolidation in stocks would be a healthy thing
In only three of the past thirty years did the S&P 500 index do as well or better than what it has done year-to-date. A consolidation or correction is likely over the next month or so and indeed would be a healthy thing, for the market to carry on later in a sustainable manner. While it’s still early days, Q2 earnings look like they will beat the consensus forecast of 9.7% y/y (which is already the highest since Q4 2021). Odds infer that if the Democrat Party picked a nominee other than Vice President Kamala Harris, its chances of winning the presidential election would be over 50%. But almost all the potential candidates have already pledged their support to her, meaning they don’t want to run. Donald Trump is therefore most likely to win, which in general is perceived as a market-friendly event.
This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
23 Jul 2024
11 MINS
11:10
23 Jul 2024
Where to find value in Europe’s equity markets
US equity markets have undeniably outperformed their European peers so far in 2024, but there are countries and segments within Europe that we believe are now set to benefit from the current economic environment, and that despite disappointing data readings in June, are nevertheless worthy of investors’ attention.
In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategist, about where his team sees opportunities in European equities, which countries now carry an Overweight rating, and the sectors and segments that currently offer diversification benefits for investors.
00:32 – Introduction to the topic and speakers01:15 – Impact of elections on UK equities02:50 – French equities after parliamentary elections03:58 – Why consider European equities when US indices are outperforming06:01 – European industrials and our preferred subsectors06:54 – The case for mid-cap stocks07:26 – Overweight calls for Germany and Switzerland and a preference for cyclical sectors09:25 - Does disappointing recent economic data taint our views?10:19 - Summary of our equity calls within Europe11:05 - Conclusion
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
17 Jul 2024
13 MINS
13:08
17 Jul 2024
The Week in Markets: An extraordinary weekend
In this episode, we share some thoughts about the assassination attempt on Donald Trump over last weekend as well as what to expect in an earnings heavy week.
This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia)
16 Jul 2024
05 MINS
05:55
16 Jul 2024
The Week in Markets: Is 9% too high?
In this episode, we talk about what we can expect from a data heavy week and what the 9% Q2 earnings growth expected for the S&P500 means for investors.
This episode is presented by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Research, Asia), and was recorded on 9 July, 2024.
10 Jul 2024
06 MINS
06:22
10 Jul 2024
In Conversation with GROW - July 2024 Edition
In this monthly China update, our experts discuss if the Chinese property market has finally reached a trough, as well how to pre-position for potential tax reforms in the country, particularly consumption tax. They also assess the impact of previous US trade tariffs on China, and explore the relationship between gold and productivity cycle.
This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.
08 Jul 2024
24 MINS
24:16
08 Jul 2024