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Beyond Markets podcast

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Beyond Markets

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  Julius Baer  

“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

 

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#310

The Week in Markets: A successful IPO shows animal spirits returning to private markets

A survey done by the National Federation of Independent Business finds a surge of optimism among small business owners in the United States since the election. Meanwhile, not one of the world’s largest economies is expected to be in a recession next year. That sentiment is reflected in the world stock market index, which is back to touching the upper band of its ascending channel, for the first time since late 2021. A large venture capital-backed unicorn has a successful IPO last week, despite still being loss making. With 27% of the S&P 500 index’s market capitalisation in just five companies, concentration in the stock market is at an all-time high. But concentration has never been a useful predictor for forward returns; in fact high levels of concentration have historically coincided with good forward returns. ... Read more

16 Dec 2024

09 MINS

09:10

16 Dec 2024

#309

Market Outlook 2025 - The art of the real deal

In 2024, we witnessed the normalisation of many economic variables, notably inflation and growth, clearing the path for monetary policy easing in the US and Europe. Looking to 2025, with a new Republican administration in place in the US there will be plenty of changes to digest. Our analysts believe that the key to success will be closing significant fiscal, geopolitical, and corporate deals whilst also achieving economic growth. What does this mean for financial markets and those who invest in them? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Market Outlook 2025 – The art of the real deal’, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the market environment, why they expect broadening equity returns, and which sectors are set to benefit from likely growth and policy shifts in 2025. 00:37 Introduction to topic and speakers01:06 Broad expectations for 202502:08 Monetary policy oulook02:43 Trump tariff implications for Europe03:18 Trump tariff implications for Asia04:45 Equity preferences in Asia06:19 Developed market equity stance06:57 Preferred cyclical sectors07:35 The impact of the Republican sweep10:02 USD bond opportunities10:27 EUR bond opportunities11:02 The duration sweet spot11:29 Emerging market bonds11:49 Our view on gold’s outlook12:44 Next Generation: Cloud computing & AI; Extended longevity14:39 Next Generation: Future cities15:14 Summary of our outlook for 202515:50 Closing comments Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

16 Dec 2024

17 MINS

17:54

16 Dec 2024

#308

The State of Modern Philanthropy

As our world continues to be riven by instability and conflict, global wealth inequality is becoming one of the most pressing matters of our time. With the divide between the haves and the have nots continuing to grow, increasing numbers of people are dedicating their time and resources to tackling this societal imbalance as generational attitudes to creating impact and having social purpose are changing. This episode of Beyond Markets features CEO of the Julius Baer Foundation Laura Hemrika discussing the state of modern philanthropy and how people can get involved and is hosted by John Franklin, Marketing Specialist at Julius Baer. ... Read more

12 Dec 2024

20 MINS

20:29

12 Dec 2024

#307

In Conversation with GROW: How real are Trump's tariff threats?

President-elect Trump has threatened steep tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and BRICS economies. Are these bold threats a negotiating tactic, or could they reshape global trade? Our experts discuss the potential impact on China, its domestic policies, stock market, and the Yuan. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. ... Read more

10 Dec 2024

24 MINS

24:46

10 Dec 2024

#306

The Week in Markets: Will the year close on a high note?

​​The market wants to close the year on a high note, with the S&P 500 index’s total year-to-date return exceeding 30%. The consensus estimates around 13% earnings growth for both 2025 and 2026. The futures market implies a Fed funds rate of 3.65% by February next year, an over 100 basis point decline from where it is today. In such circumstances, it’s not hard to imagine the bull market in stocks could keep going, barring an inflation shock.​​ Keywords: S&P 500 index, all-time high, earnings growth, interest rate cut, Fed funds rate, deregulation, David Perdue, ambassador to China, Hang Seng index Past performance and simulations are not reliable indicators of future performance. Returns reflect all ongoing charges excluding transaction fees. All investments have inherent risks, and investors may not recover their initial investment. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. ... Read more

09 Dec 2024

14 MINS

14:21

09 Dec 2024

#305

Will the world run out of silver?

The growing demand for solar power is fueling concern about a looming shortage of silver. But how much of this is fact, and how much is speculation? What does the future hold for this essential metal?Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they dive into the data and uncover the realities of silver’s supply, demand, and its role in energy transition. ... Read more

05 Dec 2024

14 MINS

14:35

05 Dec 2024

#304

The Week in Markets: Markets unfazed by Trump’s tariff threats

The Economist magazine ran a story recently, titled “Should investors just give up on stocks outside America?”. It epitomizes the view that many have taken; although the US economy is only 25% of the world economy, its stock market is 75% of world stock market capitalization.   Yet the reasons for this are not without merit. Companies would rather list on the US stock market than those of their home countries. Further tax cuts are likely to happen in the US. And its economy has emerged from the pandemic more powerful than any other. As a case in point, a decade ago the GDP per capita of the United States and Canada were almost the same. This year, that of the US is expected to be $86,000, and Canada’s just $54,000.   US economy, stock market, tax cuts, December, strategist S&P 500 index forecasts, Canada, Mexico, BRICs, tariffs, sanctions ... Read more

02 Dec 2024

11 MINS

11:31

02 Dec 2024

#303

Equity calls post US elections and Q3 earnings

The Q3 earnings season is out of the way, US elections resulted in a swift and decisive Republican sweep, and the incoming president has nominated a likely equity-friendly nominee for the post of Treasury Secretary. The ducks still seem to be in a row for a year-end rally, but what tweaks have our strategists made to their calls, and where do they think investors should focus their attention as we head into the final stretch of the year? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, about how the earnings results compared in Europe and the US, and what the dynamics are going forwards. They delve into which cyclical sectors are preferred and Mathieu also explains why some sectors have now fallen out of favour and why others should now be in focus. 00:31 Introduction to topic and speaker 01:14 Summary of US Q3 earnings season 02:33 Summary of Europe Q3 earnings season 03:30 Stock price reactions to earnings 04:10 Is it too late to join the equity rally? 06:47 Why we overweight Financials and prefer US stocks 08:06 The reason Industrials remain overweight 09:04 Our preference for mid-caps over small-caps 10:22 Healthcare moves to Neutral 12:10 Thoughts on tech and the Magnificent 7 12:29 Latest ratings changes on equity sectors 14:28 What to take away from the conversation 15:18 Closing comments Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

28 Nov 2024

17 MINS

17:36

28 Nov 2024

#302

The Week in Markets – What’s in store for fixed income in 2025?

Following the shift in the political landscape, Julius Baer experts expect higher nominal growth driven by both real growth and inflation in the US. Given less room for rate cuts, they anticipate yields to stay higher for longer and Fed funds rate to be above neutral next year. Although it is too early to quantify the consequences of the political shift in terms of trade and fiscal policy, investors now benefit from a better starting point in bond markets.    In this episode of Beyond Markets, Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer, discusses the near-term outlook and strategy for fixed income going into 2025. ... Read more

25 Nov 2024

05 MINS

05:22

25 Nov 2024

#301

Crunch time: what does the boom in AI and data centres mean for energy and the economy?

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Carsten Menke and Norbert Rucker, Next Generation Research experts at Julius Baer, discuss the boom in AI and data centres and what this means for energy and the econom ... Read more

20 Nov 2024

16 MINS

16:19

20 Nov 2024

#300

The Week in Markets – Trump’s cabinet takes shape

The S&P fell 2% last week, but it is still 1.5% higher following the Donald Trump’s victory at the 2024 US presidential election. Serious change looks set to be coming under a second Trump administration. The new administration will implement a libertarian vision, which includes economic freedom, and thus a push for freer markets, and a leaner and more efficient government promised by the new “Department of Government Efficiency” limits the risk of unproductive allocation of capital.   On inflation and interest rates, the October consumer and producer price inflation numbers both came out hotter than expected. The most recent initial jobless claims reading was also at the lowest since May. Such developments call into question the narrative that interest rates are going to continue declining at the faster pace expected a few months ago.   This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer. ... Read more

18 Nov 2024

14 MINS

14:45

18 Nov 2024

#299

The Week in Markets: Aftermath of Super Week

The past week has been marked by three major global events: the US presidential election, Federal Reserve meeting and the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting in China. In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, breaks down each of these developments and the impact on the global economy and investments. ... Read more

11 Nov 2024

08 MINS

08:26

11 Nov 2024

#298

What Trump's comeback means for markets

US stocks surged after Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory — but what does this mean for the future of the markets? In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Asia at Julius Baer, explore their outlook on equities, bonds, and other key asset classes, examining where opportunities and risks may lie ahead. ---(00:00) - Intro ---(00:19) - A strong mandate for Trump ---(01:23) - US equities surge post-results ---(02:20) - Does the equity bull market have legs? ---(03:10) - Antitrust on Big Tech - What now? ---(04:20) - Strong outlook for equities ---(06:11) - Sharp moves in Treasury yields ---(08:35) - Will the Fed continue on its interest rate path? ---(09:40) - The future of an independent Fed and Powell ---(11:53) - What's driving the Dollar? ---(13:06) - Impact of tariffs vs. potential bigger fiscal deficit ---(14:03) - Quick thoughts - Gold, crypto, large/mid-caps, oil & gas, renewable energy,  EVs, healthcare, banks, defence, China, Japan, Germany ---(20:12) - Summary ... Read more

08 Nov 2024

22 MINS

22:05

08 Nov 2024

#297

In Conversation with GROW: Round trip in Chinese stock sentiment

In this monthly China update, our experts discuss the recent shift in sentiment around Chinese equities, expected policy changes from the National People's Congress meeting, and the critical factors in solving China's structural challenges. They also examine the implications of a Trump or Harris presidency on China's economy and global supply chains, as well as the outlook for the Chinese Yuan and gold.   This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. ... Read more

05 Nov 2024

22 MINS

22:39

05 Nov 2024

#296

The Week in Markets: The world’s most closely watched election

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities analyst Jen-Ai Chua provides an in-depth look at the current landscape as we approach this week’s US Presidential election. We also explore the factors supporting potential upside for stocks, including strong year-end seasonality, anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and corporate earnings continuing to hold up. ... Read more

04 Nov 2024

08 MINS

08:48

04 Nov 2024

#295

The Week in Markets: Navigating key market events on the horizon

US equities and gold continue to make new historical highs, while markets approach a pivotal period with major upcoming events. From key Q3 US earnings reports, the US Presidential election to China’s NPC congress and the aftermath of Japan’s general election. What are the investment implications of these events and how can investors navigate the uncertainties ahead?   This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer. ... Read more

28 Oct 2024

09 MINS

09:05

28 Oct 2024

#294

The Week in Markets: Normalising rates and US elections on the horizon

In this episode, we take a look at the US fixed income markets coming out of the third quarter of 2024, and what to expect in this space as we near the November 5 US presidential election. We also briefly discuss how other G10 and Emerging Market central banks have shifted following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut in September. It’s a different story in China, however, with its central bank just announcing reductions in the Loan Prime Rates.   This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer. ... Read more

21 Oct 2024

06 MINS

06:16

21 Oct 2024

#293

The technical take: are we set for a year-end rally?

After a strong September for equities, the question now is if we can expect a year-end rally. An analysis of the charts provides a clear answer. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the significance of the steepening yield curve and the depreciating US dollar for equities, as well as which regions and sectors are set to outperform over the remainder of the year. 00:38 – Introduction to speakers and topic01:00 – What is technical analysis?03:03 – What do September’s equity market returns mean for the rest of the year?04:34 – What does a depreciating US dollar mean for equities?06:02 – How significant is the steepening yield curve?07:46 – Which regions are set to perform better?08:30 – What’s next for Chinese equities?09:35 – Which sectors should do well now?10:25 – After reaching new all-time highs, how is gold set to perform now?11:30 – Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

16 Oct 2024

13 MINS

13:29

16 Oct 2024

#292

The Week in Markets:​ Mixed takeaways from the MoF presser

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we provide a review of the latest press conference of China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), how investors see it and the outlook of the Chinese equity market going forward.  We also briefly discuss the latest outlook of the Fed interest rate, the implications of the US Presidential election and the ongoing reporting season.  This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of​ Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.   ... Read more

14 Oct 2024

07 MINS

07:50

14 Oct 2024

#291

Geopolitics and beyond - What's powering oil and gold?

As we move into Q4 2024, gold prices continue their remarkable climb, while oil faces a more uncertain future amid heightened geopolitical tensions. What’s fueling these divergent trends in two of the world’s most important commodities, and where could they be headed next? Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they offer expert analysis and insights on the key factors shaping the markets for gold and oil. 00:19 Introduction 00:41 Our gold and oil forecast 01:55 Are geopolitics flare ups driving up gold prices? 2:52 Asia and Western demand 3:46 The impact of central bank gold holdings 5:04 Why has gold continued to rise despite China’s pause in gold purchases 6:02 Speculative gold positioning 7:18 Significant redemptions in Western ETFs 8:15 Where can gold go in a rate easing cycle? 9:25 Recession risks 10:20 Geopolitical noise impacting oil 11:00 Escalating conflict – where can oil go? 12:42 China’s stimulus – is there upside for oil? 14:01 The supply and demand picture ... Read more

10 Oct 2024

16 MINS

16:21

10 Oct 2024

#290

The Week in Markets – Halloween comes early

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger than expected non-farm payrolls data has spooked US markets, while the much awaited press conference by China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on Tuesday disappointed. More economic data releases in upcoming weeks should provide greater clarity as to the likelihood of ‘no landing’ in the US and the slowdown in China. We expect the Asian REITs to continue doing well as expectations of lower rates remain intact. This episode was recorded on October 8, 2024. ... Read more

09 Oct 2024

07 MINS

07:23

09 Oct 2024

#289

What is the cost of obesity?

In this episode we are joined by Damien Ng, one of Julius Baer’s next generation analysts, to discuss the background and economic significance of obesity drugs. ... Read more

03 Oct 2024

14 MINS

14:46

03 Oct 2024

#288

The Week in Markets: Japan slides, China bounces

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the newly elected Japan Prime Minister and the market response, as well as how his potential policies affect our investment thesis in Japan equities. For the Chinese market, we share a few data points on how strong inflows have been, why we think the tactical rally may extend and what this means for investors. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, the China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer. ... Read more

01 Oct 2024

07 MINS

07:17

01 Oct 2024

#287

​In Conversation with GROW - Is the China rally different this time?

In this monthly China update, our experts analyse if the big rally in China equities has legs, following last Tuesday's "bazooka" policy announcements from China's central bank. They also take a closer look at recent trading flows and discuss what trends can be expected in currencies and stocks. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. ... Read more

01 Oct 2024

26 MINS

26:25

01 Oct 2024

#286

China’s policy bazooka

The Chinese financial regulators recently announced a series of monetary measures with an aim of supporting the economy. In this podcast, we discuss how effective the policies are, whether this is just another bounce or if it marks the beginning of a sustainable rally, and what this means for investors. This podcast is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer. ... Read more

25 Sep 2024

06 MINS

06:38

25 Sep 2024

#285

The Week in Markets: After the Fed cut

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the outlook of the US interest rate path after the larger-than-expected 50 basis points cut and the implications for different assets. We also comment on the recent bounce of the offshore Chinese equity market and our strategy around that.​ This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head​ of Research Hong Kong for Bank Julius Baer. ... Read more

24 Sep 2024

06 MINS

06:47

24 Sep 2024

#284

The Fed’s rate cut and implications for investors

At the much-anticipated US Federal Reserve meeting on 18 September 2024, the monetary policy easing cycle finally began in the US with an announcement of a 50 basis point rate cut.  In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, and Mischa Anand, Julius Baer’s Head of Advisory in Zurich, talk to Helen Freer about the significance of the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, what it means for the economy and the implications for investors. 00:39 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:10 – Was a 50bp cut by the Fed appropriate?04:06 – What does the rate cut mean for the economy and investors?08:53 – Given a recession is not our base case, what is our macroeconomic outlook?13:03 – What about the outlook for equities now that the Fed easing cycle has started?15:06 - Does this mean we’re likely to see volatility ahead?17:14 - Where does the Fed go from here?20:08 – How significant is the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle for other central banks and the rest of the world?23:07 - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

23 Sep 2024

25 MINS

25:10

23 Sep 2024

#283

Investing in equities in Q4 2024

We expect volatility in equity markets to remain elevated as we head towards the end of the year, amidst uncertainty around the upcoming US election, seasonal factors, and lingering fears of an economic slowdown. It therefore seems timely to look at what our analysts take into account when it comes to stock selection. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about how his team approaches the process of stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that are set to offer good investment opportunities in the coming months. 00:32 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:16 – Our approach to stock selection02:33 – Market Outlook into year-end 202404:13 – Information Technology: our preferences06:27 – Healthcare: more than just large-cap pharma09:06 – Industrials: focus on cyclical & structural growth opportunities11:22 – Opportunities across sectors12:01 - US election outcome - implications for stocks13:33 – Summary and conclusion Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

18 Sep 2024

16 MINS

16:00

18 Sep 2024

#282

The Week in Markets: Hints of a 50 basis point rate cut

Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index had its worst week of the year on the idea that the economy was weakening. Last week was its best week of the year, on the idea the Federal Reserve might cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the traditional 25, when it meets this Wednesday. Expectations have changed following two articles in the Wall Street Journal raising the prospect for a 50 basis point cut, and comments from three former Fed officials who each made a case for a 50 basis point cut. In July, the consensus was looking for Q3 S&P 500 index annual earnings growth of almost 7%. Now it’s looking for just 4%. However, the pace of growth is expected to improve thereafter; to 11% in Q4, and 13% and 14% respectively in Q1 and Q2 of next year. ... Read more

16 Sep 2024

11 MINS

11:57

16 Sep 2024

#281

US Presidential Race 2024: Cutting through the noise

On Tuesday night, Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris faced off for the first time at the US presidential debate, each presenting two starkly differing visions for the country. Join Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Specialists Asia at Bank Julius Baer as they analyse the implications of each candidate's policy proposals, and how investors can navigate the potential shifts in the political landscape. 1:15     The significance of the US presidential election 3:29    How might Trump’s tariffs impact the economy? 6:06   Trump’s energy policy and inflation 8:18    Can the Fed keep its independence? 9:34    Trump’s tax policy and potential deficit impact 11:53    How can investors position in a Trump sweep? 13:19    Harris’ tax policy and potential deficit impact 15:37    Do price controls actually work? 18:37    How might a Harris victory impact the economy? 20:20    Why have bond markets not responded more significantly yet? 21:38    What the polls are saying 23:07    Predicting the outcome 24:30    A very tight race ... Read more

12 Sep 2024

26 MINS

26:35

12 Sep 2024