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Beyond Markets podcast

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Beyond Markets

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  Julius Baer  

“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

 

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#316

The Week in Markets: Softer-than-expected CPI sparks relief rally

There was a clear relief rally in both the stock and rates market, following softer-than-expected US CPI numbers last week. In the grand scheme of things however, asset pricings have swung between growth and inflation or policy shocks over the past year. In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, discusses the significant treasury moves over the past year, the implications of the latest CPI print, and what to watch out in rates and equities markets. ... Read more

23 hrs Ago

06 MINS

06:18

23 hrs Ago

#315

In Conversation with GROW – Cracks in sentiment beginning to surface

Cracks in market sentiment have begun to surface in the first three weeks of 2025. A slew of negative headlines and rumours include the outgoing Biden administration placing several Chinese tech giants on the “Chinese Military Companies” list, and the tariff threats from the incoming Trump administration continue to be an overhang on markets. How do we see the US-China trade relationship in 2025, and how should investors position accordingly? Our experts also discuss the key US inflationary drivers to watch out for in 2025, and the path for the Chinese Yuan and Chinese equities given the recent policy announcements from the People’s Bank of China.   This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. ... Read more

15 Jan 2025

30 MINS

30:41

15 Jan 2025

#314

The Week​ in Markets: Bond markets throw a tantrum

In this episode of the week in markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger-than-​expected non-farm payrolls data for December has pushed up Treasury yields, resulting in a yawning gap in US and Chinese government bond yields. This has put downward pressure on the Chinese Yuan – although it is not the only currency in Asian expected to soften. The Singapore Dollar, hitherto one of the stronger currencies in Asia, is also likely to weaken this year as inflation ebbs. US consumer and producer price inflation data out this week, and Q4 2024 earnings releases by financial heavyweights will likely determine if the US equity market can trek higher.  ... Read more

13 Jan 2025

06 MINS

06:48

13 Jan 2025

#313

Living with your investments: is the living sector the next big thing in real estate?

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate and Intelligence, to discuss the latest developments in real estate and how investing in the ‘living’ sector can also be an investment in your quality of life. Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership. ... Read more

09 Jan 2025

12 MINS

12:18

09 Jan 2025

#312

The Week in Markets: A top in the S&P 500 index may be in the making

The S&P 500 index’s internal indicators signal a top may be in the making. After two years of returns in excess of 20%, the index trades at a pricey forward price/earnings ratio of 22x. Renewed inflation concerns could be a catalyst for a serious correction. We remain fully invested but contemplate reducing risk at some point in the year. While the consensus among Wall Street strategists is that the S&P will rise 12% this year, studies show their accuracy as a group is less than 50%. As a group, they’ve also never predicted a down year, while in fact one in four years has historically had a negative return. ... Read more

06 Jan 2025

11 MINS

11:47

06 Jan 2025

#311

The Week in Markets: Risk of a stock market correction in 2025

In its December 18 meeting, the Federal Reserve signalled that inflation is going to be higher than it expected. If the Fed has to raise rates again at some point next year, the market would not like that at all. The S&P 500 index has returned 60% in the last 2 years, and is trading at valuations seen only in the dot-com and pandemic stimulus booms.But the final phase of a bull market can last a painfully long time for those who try to be contrarian. We remain invested, but contemplate reducing risk at some point in 2025. It will be a year of capital preservation, after 2 years of capital growth. ... Read more

23 Dec 2024

09 MINS

09:56

23 Dec 2024

#310

The Week in Markets: A successful IPO shows animal spirits returning to private markets

A survey done by the National Federation of Independent Business finds a surge of optimism among small business owners in the United States since the election. Meanwhile, not one of the world’s largest economies is expected to be in a recession next year. That sentiment is reflected in the world stock market index, which is back to touching the upper band of its ascending channel, for the first time since late 2021. A large venture capital-backed unicorn has a successful IPO last week, despite still being loss making. With 27% of the S&P 500 index’s market capitalisation in just five companies, concentration in the stock market is at an all-time high. But concentration has never been a useful predictor for forward returns; in fact high levels of concentration have historically coincided with good forward returns. ... Read more

16 Dec 2024

09 MINS

09:10

16 Dec 2024

#309

Market Outlook 2025 - The art of the real deal

In 2024, we witnessed the normalisation of many economic variables, notably inflation and growth, clearing the path for monetary policy easing in the US and Europe. Looking to 2025, with a new Republican administration in place in the US there will be plenty of changes to digest. Our analysts believe that the key to success will be closing significant fiscal, geopolitical, and corporate deals whilst also achieving economic growth. What does this mean for financial markets and those who invest in them? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Market Outlook 2025 – The art of the real deal’, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the market environment, why they expect broadening equity returns, and which sectors are set to benefit from likely growth and policy shifts in 2025. 00:37 Introduction to topic and speakers01:06 Broad expectations for 202502:08 Monetary policy oulook02:43 Trump tariff implications for Europe03:18 Trump tariff implications for Asia04:45 Equity preferences in Asia06:19 Developed market equity stance06:57 Preferred cyclical sectors07:35 The impact of the Republican sweep10:02 USD bond opportunities10:27 EUR bond opportunities11:02 The duration sweet spot11:29 Emerging market bonds11:49 Our view on gold’s outlook12:44 Next Generation: Cloud computing & AI; Extended longevity14:39 Next Generation: Future cities15:14 Summary of our outlook for 202515:50 Closing comments Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

16 Dec 2024

17 MINS

17:54

16 Dec 2024

#308

The State of Modern Philanthropy

As our world continues to be riven by instability and conflict, global wealth inequality is becoming one of the most pressing matters of our time. With the divide between the haves and the have nots continuing to grow, increasing numbers of people are dedicating their time and resources to tackling this societal imbalance as generational attitudes to creating impact and having social purpose are changing. This episode of Beyond Markets features CEO of the Julius Baer Foundation Laura Hemrika discussing the state of modern philanthropy and how people can get involved and is hosted by John Franklin, Marketing Specialist at Julius Baer. ... Read more

12 Dec 2024

20 MINS

20:29

12 Dec 2024

#307

In Conversation with GROW: How real are Trump's tariff threats?

President-elect Trump has threatened steep tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and BRICS economies. Are these bold threats a negotiating tactic, or could they reshape global trade? Our experts discuss the potential impact on China, its domestic policies, stock market, and the Yuan. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. ... Read more

10 Dec 2024

24 MINS

24:46

10 Dec 2024

#306

The Week in Markets: Will the year close on a high note?

​​The market wants to close the year on a high note, with the S&P 500 index’s total year-to-date return exceeding 30%. The consensus estimates around 13% earnings growth for both 2025 and 2026. The futures market implies a Fed funds rate of 3.65% by February next year, an over 100 basis point decline from where it is today. In such circumstances, it’s not hard to imagine the bull market in stocks could keep going, barring an inflation shock.​​ Keywords: S&P 500 index, all-time high, earnings growth, interest rate cut, Fed funds rate, deregulation, David Perdue, ambassador to China, Hang Seng index Past performance and simulations are not reliable indicators of future performance. Returns reflect all ongoing charges excluding transaction fees. All investments have inherent risks, and investors may not recover their initial investment. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. ... Read more

09 Dec 2024

14 MINS

14:21

09 Dec 2024

#305

Will the world run out of silver?

The growing demand for solar power is fueling concern about a looming shortage of silver. But how much of this is fact, and how much is speculation? What does the future hold for this essential metal?Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they dive into the data and uncover the realities of silver’s supply, demand, and its role in energy transition. ... Read more

05 Dec 2024

14 MINS

14:35

05 Dec 2024

#304

The Week in Markets: Markets unfazed by Trump’s tariff threats

The Economist magazine ran a story recently, titled “Should investors just give up on stocks outside America?”. It epitomizes the view that many have taken; although the US economy is only 25% of the world economy, its stock market is 75% of world stock market capitalization.   Yet the reasons for this are not without merit. Companies would rather list on the US stock market than those of their home countries. Further tax cuts are likely to happen in the US. And its economy has emerged from the pandemic more powerful than any other. As a case in point, a decade ago the GDP per capita of the United States and Canada were almost the same. This year, that of the US is expected to be $86,000, and Canada’s just $54,000.   US economy, stock market, tax cuts, December, strategist S&P 500 index forecasts, Canada, Mexico, BRICs, tariffs, sanctions ... Read more

02 Dec 2024

11 MINS

11:31

02 Dec 2024

#303

Equity calls post US elections and Q3 earnings

The Q3 earnings season is out of the way, US elections resulted in a swift and decisive Republican sweep, and the incoming president has nominated a likely equity-friendly nominee for the post of Treasury Secretary. The ducks still seem to be in a row for a year-end rally, but what tweaks have our strategists made to their calls, and where do they think investors should focus their attention as we head into the final stretch of the year? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, about how the earnings results compared in Europe and the US, and what the dynamics are going forwards. They delve into which cyclical sectors are preferred and Mathieu also explains why some sectors have now fallen out of favour and why others should now be in focus. 00:31 Introduction to topic and speaker 01:14 Summary of US Q3 earnings season 02:33 Summary of Europe Q3 earnings season 03:30 Stock price reactions to earnings 04:10 Is it too late to join the equity rally? 06:47 Why we overweight Financials and prefer US stocks 08:06 The reason Industrials remain overweight 09:04 Our preference for mid-caps over small-caps 10:22 Healthcare moves to Neutral 12:10 Thoughts on tech and the Magnificent 7 12:29 Latest ratings changes on equity sectors 14:28 What to take away from the conversation 15:18 Closing comments Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. ... Read more

28 Nov 2024

17 MINS

17:36

28 Nov 2024

#302

The Week in Markets – What’s in store for fixed income in 2025?

Following the shift in the political landscape, Julius Baer experts expect higher nominal growth driven by both real growth and inflation in the US. Given less room for rate cuts, they anticipate yields to stay higher for longer and Fed funds rate to be above neutral next year. Although it is too early to quantify the consequences of the political shift in terms of trade and fiscal policy, investors now benefit from a better starting point in bond markets.    In this episode of Beyond Markets, Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer, discusses the near-term outlook and strategy for fixed income going into 2025. ... Read more

25 Nov 2024

05 MINS

05:22

25 Nov 2024

#301

Crunch time: what does the boom in AI and data centres mean for energy and the economy?

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Carsten Menke and Norbert Rucker, Next Generation Research experts at Julius Baer, discuss the boom in AI and data centres and what this means for energy and the econom ... Read more

20 Nov 2024

16 MINS

16:19

20 Nov 2024