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Dwarkesh Podcast

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Dwarkesh Patel

Deeply researched interviews [www.dwarkeshpatel.com] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com?utm_medium=podcast)

#81

Sarah Paine Episode 1: The War For India (Lecture & Interview)

I’m thrilled to launch a new trilogy of double episodes: a lecture series by Professor Sarah Paine of the Naval War College, each followed by a deep Q&A. In this first episode, Prof Paine talks about key decisions by Khrushchev, Mao, Nehru, Bhutto, & Lyndon Johnson that shaped the whole dynamic of South Asia today. This is followed by a Q&A. Come for the spy bases, shoestring nukes, and insight about how great power politics impacts every region. Huge thanks to Substack for hosting this! Watch on [YouTube] (https://www.youtube.com/DwarkeshPatel) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lunar-society/id1516093381) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF) , or any other podcast platform. Sponsors Today’s episode is brought to you by Scale AI. Scale partners with the U.S. government to fuel America’s AI advantage through their data foundry. The Air Force, Army, Defense Innovation Unit, and Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office all trust Scale to equip their teams with AI-ready data and the technology to build powerful applications. Scale recently introduced Defense Llama, Scale's latest solution available for military personnel. With Defense Llama, military personnel can harness the power of AI to plan military or intelligence operations and understand adversary vulnerabilities. If you’re interested in learning more on how Scale powers frontier AI capabilities, go to [scale.com/dwarkesh] (http://scale.com/dwarkesh) . Timestamps (00:00) - Intro (02:11) - Mao at war, 1949-51 (05:40) - Pactomania and Sino-Soviet conflicts (14:42) - The Sino-Indian War (20:00) - Soviet peace in India-Pakistan (22:00) - US Aid and Alliances (26:14) - The difference with WWII (30:09) - The geopolitical map in 1904 (35:10) - The US alienates Indira Gandhi (42:58) - Instruments of US power (53:41) - Carrier battle groups (1:02:41) - Q&A begins (1:04:31) - The appeal of the USSR (1:09:36) - The last communist premier (1:15:42) - India and China's lost opportunity (1:58:04) - Bismark's cunning (2:03:05) - Training US officers (2:07:03) - Cruelty in Russian history Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

Yesterday

2 HR 12 MINS

2:12:58

Yesterday

#80

Tyler Cowen - the #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humans

I interviewed Tyler Cowen at the Progress Conference 2024. As always, I had a blast. This is my fourth interview with him – and yet I’m always hearing new stuff. We talked about why he thinks AI won't drive explosive economic growth, the real bottlenecks on world progress, him now writing for AIs instead of humans, and the difficult relationship between being cultured and fostering growth – among many other things in the full episode. Thanks to the [Roots of Progress Institute] (https://rootsofprogress.org/) (with special thanks to Jason Crawford and Heike Larson) for such a wonderful conference, and to [FreeThink] (https://www.youtube.com/@freethink) for the videography. Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/GT_sXIUJPUo) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lunar-society/id1516093381) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/48EIEaESY0IGxf02pzIEIN?si=d2S1y6HUQuulAOGKVV7GhQ) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/tyler-cowen-4) . Sponsors I’m grateful to Tyler for volunteering to say a few words about [Jane Street] (https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh) . It's the first time that a guest has participated in the sponsorship. I hope you can see why Tyler and I think so highly of Jane Street. To learn more about their open rules, go to [janestreet.com/dwarkersh] (https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh) . Timestamps (00:00:00) Economic Growth and AI (00:14:57) Founder Mode and increasing variance (00:29:31) Effective Altruism and Progress Studies (00:33:05) What AI changes for Tyler (00:44:57) The slow diffusion of innovation (00:49:53) Stalin's library (00:52:19) DC vs SF vs EU Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

09 Jan 2025

59 MINS

59:45

09 Jan 2025

#79

I'm hiring!

In order to apply, or to refer someone else, please fill out [this short form] (https://airtable.com/appxBeG9GxCMjy4ze/pag3nChLASE4Hc0X2/form) ! For more information, visit [dwarkeshpatel.com/roles] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/roles) . Our mission is to publish the highest quality intellectual content in the world, to find the David Reichs and Sarah Paines of every field, and to produce the best contemporaneous coverage of the emergence of AGI. I need the help of two key partners in order to achieve this mission. * General Manager: A killer operator who will run and lead our business. * Editor-in-Chief: A polymath and a shrewd promoter with amazing taste. If you refer somebody I end up hiring, I'll pay you $20,000. If you know someone exceptional who would be a great fit, please share this with them! FAQ Will keep updated. Q: What happened to the COO position you posted about a few months ago? Tons of super talented people applied. The role wasn't filled because I had incorrectly combined two distinct positions into one. This was not due to any shortcomings in the applicant pool, and I’m very grateful to everyone who applied! Q: What's the timeline? A: I'll keep applications open until January 20th and will start reviewing and scheduling interviews from January 8th. Early applications will be reviewed first. Q: I applied for the COO role previously - can I apply again? A: Yes! While many incredibly talented people applied for the COO role, I've now split the role into two more focused positions. If you applied before, you're welcome to apply again, though please note that I have already reviewed and considered your previous application. Q: What's the compensation? A: Compensation will be competitive with major tech companies. Q: What about location? A: I'm flexible on location but have a preference for hybrid work with some time in my SF office when in-person collaboration is valuable. Full remote is possible for exceptional candidates. Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

27 Dec 2024

09 MINS

09:19

27 Dec 2024

#78

Adam Brown – How Future Civilizations Could Change The Laws of Physics

Adam Brown is a founder and lead of BlueShift with is cracking maths and reasoning at Google DeepMind and a theoretical physicist at Stanford. We discuss: destroying the light cone with vacuum decay, holographic principle, mining black holes, & what it would take to train LLMs that can make Einstein level conceptual breakthroughs. Stupefying, entertaining, & terrifying. Enjoy! Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/XhB3qH_TFds) , read the [transcript] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/adam-brown) , listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF) , or your favorite platform. Sponsors - Deepmind, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI, partner with [Scale] (https://scale.com/dwarkesh) for high quality data to fuel post-training Publicly available data is running out - to keep developing smarter and smarter models, labs will need to rely on Scale’s data foundry, which combines subject matter experts with AI models to generate fresh data and break through the data wall. Learn more at [scale.ai/dwarkesh] (https://scale.com/dwarkesh) . - [Jane Street] (https://www.janestreet.com/dwarkesh) is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open for just a few more weeks. If you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go to [janestreet.com/dwarkesh] (https://www.janestreet.com/dwarkesh) . - This episode is brought to you by [Stripe] (https://stripe.com/) , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Changing the laws of physics (00:26:05) - Why is our universe the way it is (00:37:30) - Making Einstein level AGI (01:00:31) - Physics stagnation and particle colliders (01:11:10) - Hitchhiking (01:29:00) - Nagasaki (01:36:19) - Adam’s career (01:43:25) - Mining black holes (01:59:42) - The holographic principle (02:23:25) - Philosophy of infinities (02:31:42) - Engineering constraints for future civilizations Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

26 Dec 2024

2 HR 43 MINS

2:43:37

26 Dec 2024

#77

Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer. He was one of the first people to see LLM scaling coming. If you've read his [blog] (https://gwern.net/) , you know he's one of the most interesting polymathic thinkers alive. In order to protect Gwern's anonymity, I proposed interviewing him in person, and having my friend [Chris Painter] (https://x.com/ChrisPainterYup) voice over his words after. This amused him enough that he agreed. After the episode, I convinced Gwern to create a donation page where people can help sustain what he's up to. Please go [here] (https://donate.stripe.com/6oE9DTgaf6oD0M03cc) to contribute. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/gwern-branwen) . Sponsors: * [Jane Street] (https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh) is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open - if you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go to [janestreet.com/dwarkesh] (https://www.janestreet.com/machine-learning/?dwarkesh) . * Turing provides complete post-training services for leading AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Gemini. They specialize in model evaluation, SFT, RLHF, and DPO to enhance models’ reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities. Learn more at [ ] (https://turing.com/dwarkesh) [turing.com/dwarkesh] (http://turing.com/dwarkesh) . * This episode is brought to you by [Stripe] (https://stripe.com/) , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out [this page] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise) . Timestamps 00:00:00 - Anonymity 00:01:09 - Automating Steve Jobs 00:04:38 - Isaac Newton's theory of progress 00:06:36 - Grand theory of intelligence 00:10:39 - Seeing scaling early 00:21:04 - AGI Timelines 00:22:54 - What to do in remaining 3 years until AGI 00:26:29 - Influencing the shoggoth with writing 00:30:50 - Human vs artificial intelligence 00:33:52 - Rabbit holes 00:38:48 - Hearing impairment 00:43:00 - Wikipedia editing 00:47:43 - Gwern.net 00:50:20 - Counterfactual careers 00:54:30 - Borges & literature 01:01:32 - Gwern's intelligence and process 01:11:03 - A day in the life of Gwern 01:19:16 - Gwern's finances 01:25:05 - The diversity of AI minds 01:27:24 - GLP drugs and obesity 01:31:08 - Drug experimentation 01:33:40 - Parasocial relationships 01:35:23 - Open rabbit holes Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

13 Nov 2024

1 HR 36 MINS

1:36:43

13 Nov 2024

#76

Dylan Patel & Jon (Asianometry) – How the Semiconductor Industry Actually Works

A bonanza on the semiconductor industry and hardware scaling to AGI by the end of the decade. Dylan Patel runs [Semianalysis] (https://www.semianalysis.com/) , the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware. Jon Y runs [Asianometry] (https://www.youtube.com/@Asianometry) , the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history. * What Xi would do if he became scaling pilled * $ 1T+ in datacenter buildout by end of decade Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/pE3KKUKXcTM) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dylan-patel-jon-asianometry-how-the-semiconductor/id1516093381?i=1000671564456) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/6q1XODE2L5bqqBwe7434S7?si=XPbFrc8HRQedPM-tqHAnGQ) , or any other podcast platform. Read the [full transcript here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dylan-jon) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Sponsors: * [Jane Street] (https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh) is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for FPGA programmers, CUDA programmers, and ML researchers. To learn more about their full time roles, internship, tech podcast, and upcoming Kaggle competition, go [here] (https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh) . * This episode is brought to you by [Stripe] (https://stripe.com/) , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out [this page] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise) . Timestamps [00:00:00 – Xi's path to AGI] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/xis-path-to-agi) [00:04:20 – Liang Mong Song] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/liang-mong-song) [00:08:25 – How semiconductors get better] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/how-semiconductors-get-better) [00:11:16 – China can centralize compute] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/china-can-centralize-compute) [00:18:50 – Export controls & sanctions] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/export-controls-and-sanctions) [00:32:51 – Huawei's intense culture] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/huaweis-intense-culture) [00:38:51 – Why the semiconductor industry is so stratified] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/why-the-semiconductor-industry-is-so-stratified) [00:40:58 – N2 should not exist] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/can-we-afford-moores-law) [00:45:53 – Taiwan invasion hypothetical] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/taiwan-invasion-hypothetical) [00:49:21 – Mind-boggling complexity of semiconductors] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/mind-boggling-complexity-of-semiconductors) [00:59:13 – Chip architecture design] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/chip-architecture-design) [01:04:36 – Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/architectures-lead-to-different-ai-models-china-vs-us) [01:10:12 – Being head of compute at an AI lab] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/being-head-of-compute-at-an-ai-lab) [01:16:24 – Scaling costs and power demand] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/scaling-costs-and-power-demand) [01:37:05 – Are we financing an AI bubble?] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/are-we-financing-an-ai-bubble) [01:50:20 – Starting Asianometry and SemiAnalysis] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/starting-asianometry-and-semianalysis) [02:06:10 – Opportunities in the semiconductor stack] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/opportunities-in-the-semiconductor-stack) Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

02 Oct 2024

2 HR 09 MINS

2:09:57

02 Oct 2024

#75

Daniel Yergin – Oil Explains the Entire 20th Century

Unless you understand the history of oil, you cannot understand the rise of America, WW1, WW2, secular stagnation, the Middle East, Ukraine, how Xi and Putin think, and basically anything else that's happened since 1860. It was a great honor to interview Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer Prize winning author of [The Prize] (https://www.amazon.com/Prize-Epic-Quest-Money-Power/dp/1439110123) - the best history of oil ever written (which makes it the best history of the 20th century ever written). Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/sveBcfz0fHk) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lunar-society/id1516093381) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/daniel-yergin) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Sponsors: This episode is brought to you by [Stripe] (https://stripe.com/) , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. This episode is brought to you by Suno, pioneers in AI-generated music. Suno's technology allows artists to experiment with melodic forms and structures in unprecedented ways. From chart-toppers to avant-garde compositions, Suno is redefining musical creativity. If you're an ML researcher passionate about shaping the future of music, email your resume to dwarkesh@suno.com. If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out [this page] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise) . Timestamps (00:00:00) – Beginning of the oil industry (00:13:37) – World War I & II (00:25:06) – The Middle East (00:47:04) – Yergin’s conversations with Putin & Modi (01:04:36) – Writing through stories (01:10:26) – The renewable energy transition Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

18 Sep 2024

1 HR 27 MINS

1:27:37

18 Sep 2024

#74

David Reich - How One Small Tribe Conquered the World 70,000 Years Ago

I had no idea how wild human history was before chatting with the geneticist of ancient DNA [David Reich] (https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/) . Human history has been again and again a story of one group figuring ‘something’ out, and then basically wiping everyone else out. From the tribe of 1k-10k modern humans who killed off all the other human species 70,000 years ago; to the Yamnaya horse nomads 5,000 years ago who killed off 90+% of (then) Europeans and also destroyed the Indus Valley. So much of what we thought we knew about human history is turning out to be wrong, from the ‘Out of Africa’ theory to the evolution of language, and this is all thanks to the research from David Reich’s lab. Buy David Reich’s fascinating book, [Who We Are How We Got Here] (https://www.amazon.com/Who-Are-How-Got-Here/dp/0198821263) . Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/Uj6skZIxPuI) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/david-reich-how-one-small-tribe-conquered-the-world/id1516093381?i=1000667163762) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/2ukLH9R4I0SydXeYDwenjN?si=7yL-cGeTRxGvHHhoe91cKw) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/david-reich) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Sponsor This episode is brought to you by [Stripe] (https://stripe.com/) , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out [this page] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise) . Timestamps (00:00:00) – Archaic and modern humans gene flow (00:20:24) – How early modern humans dominated the world (00:39:59) – How bubonic plague rewrote history (00:50:03) – Was agriculture terrible for humans? (00:59:28) – Yamnaya expansion and how populations collide (01:15:39) – “Lost civilizations” and our Neanderthal ancestry (01:31:32) – The DNA Challenge (01:41:38) – David’s career: the genetic vocation Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

29 Aug 2024

1 HR 56 MINS

1:56:06

29 Aug 2024

#73

Joe Carlsmith - Otherness and control in the age of AGI

Chatted with Joe Carlsmith about whether we can trust power/techno-capital, how to not end up like Stalin in our urge to control the future, gentleness towards the artificial Other, and much more. Check out Joe's sequence on Otherness and Control in the Age of AGI [here] (https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/02/otherness-and-control-in-the-age-of-agi) . Watch on [YouTube] (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XsL_7TnfLU) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/joe-carlsmith-otherness-and-control-in-the-age-of-agi/id1516093381?i=1000666255737) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/0npJsKzUulSHDVAHumXNtO?si=vyKi0z_CRB6inwUBhIfeFA) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/joe-carlsmith) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Sponsors: - [Bland.ai] (http://bland.ai/dwarkesh) is an AI agent that automates phone calls in any language, 24/7. Their technology uses "conversational pathways" for accurate, versatile communication across sales, operations, and customer support. You can try Bland yourself by calling 415-549-9654. Enterprises can get exclusive access to their advanced model at [bland.ai/dwarkesh] (http://bland.ai/dwarkesh) . - [Stripe] (https://stripe.com/) is financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out [this page] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise) . Timestamps: (00:00:00) - Understanding the Basic Alignment Story (00:44:04) - Monkeys Inventing Humans (00:46:43) - Nietzsche, C.S. Lewis, and AI (1:22:51) - How should we treat AIs (1:52:33) - Balancing Being a Humanist and a Scholar (2:05:02) - Explore exploit tradeoffs and AI Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

22 Aug 2024

2 HR 30 MINS

2:30:35

22 Aug 2024

#72

Patrick McKenzie - How a Discord Server Saved Thousands of Lives

I talked with Patrick McKenzie (known online as patio11) about how a small team he ran over a Discord server got vaccines into Americans' arms: A story of broken incentives, outrageous incompetence, and how a few individuals with high agency saved 1000s of lives. Enjoy! Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/18zpjpPNWRw) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-mckenzie-how-a-discord-server-saved/id1516093381?i=1000663220048) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/1GAsGNE26xbjEBH8jtWsaN?si=4hZ03qLoR8C1C8QJ2SjyPg) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/patrick-mckenzie) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Sponsor This episode is brought to you by [Stripe] (https://stripe.com/) , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Timestamps (00:00:00) – Why hackers on Discord had to save thousands of lives (00:17:26) – How politics crippled vaccine distribution (00:38:19) – Fundraising for VaccinateCA (00:51:09) – Why tech needs to understand how government works (00:58:58) – What is crypto good for? (01:13:07) – How the US government leverages big tech to violate rights (01:24:36) – Can the US have nice things like Japan? (01:26:41) – Financial plumbing & money laundering: a how-not-to guide (01:37:42) – Maximizing your value: why some people negotiate better (01:42:14) – Are young people too busy playing Factorio to found startups? (01:57:30) – The need for a post-mortem Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

24 Jul 2024

2 HR 01 MINS

2:01:34

24 Jul 2024

#71

Tony Blair - Life of a PM, The Deep State, Lee Kuan Yew, & AI's 1914 Moment

I chatted with Tony Blair about: - What he learned from Lee Kuan Yew - Intelligence agencies track record on Iraq & Ukraine - What he tells the dozens of world leaders who come seek advice from him - How much of a PM’s time is actually spent governing - What will AI’s July 1914 moment look like from inside the Cabinet? Enjoy! Watch the video on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/zSLWR3AbF3c) . Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/tony-blair) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Sponsors - [Prelude Security] (http://www.preludesecurity.com/speed) is the world’s leading cyber threat management automation platform. Prelude Detect quickly transforms threat intelligence into validated protections so organizations can know with certainty that their defenses will protect them against the latest threats. Prelude is backed by Sequoia Capital, Insight Partners, The MITRE Corporation, CrowdStrike, and other leading investors. Learn more [here] (http://www.preludesecurity.com/speed) . - This episode is brought to you by [Stripe] (https://stripe.com/) , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out [this page] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise) . Timestamps (00:00:00) – A prime minister’s constraints (00:04:12) – CEOs vs. politicians (00:10:31) – COVID, AI, & how government deals with crisis (00:21:24) – Learning from Lee Kuan Yew (00:27:37) – Foreign policy & intelligence (00:31:12) – How much leadership actually matters (00:35:34) – Private vs. public tech (00:39:14) – Advising global leaders (00:46:45) – The unipolar moment in the 90s Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

26 Jun 2024

52 MINS

52:52

26 Jun 2024

#70

Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution

Here is my conversation with Francois Chollet and Mike Knoop on the [$1 million ARC-AGI Prize they're launching today] (https://arcprize.org/) . I did a bunch of socratic grilling throughout, but Francois’s arguments about why LLMs won’t lead to AGI are very interesting and worth thinking through. It was really fun discussing/debating the cruxes. Enjoy! Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/UakqL6Pj9xo) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/francois-chollet-mike-knoop-llms-wont-lead-to-agi-%241/id1516093381?i=1000658672649) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/7bmeJQOvXGy4LYl6YoiYYP?si=obUSUEwjSA6tkB8EBcb18w) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/francois-chollet) . Timestamps (00:00:00) – The ARC benchmark (00:11:10) – Why LLMs struggle with ARC (00:19:00) – Skill vs intelligence (00:27:55) - Do we need “AGI” to automate most jobs? (00:48:28) – Future of AI progress: deep learning + program synthesis (01:00:40) – How Mike Knoop got nerd-sniped by ARC (01:08:37) – Million $ ARC Prize (01:10:33) – Resisting benchmark saturation (01:18:08) – ARC scores on frontier vs open source models (01:26:19) – Possible solutions to ARC Prize Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

11 Jun 2024

1 HR 33 MINS

1:33:53

11 Jun 2024

#69

Leopold Aschenbrenner - China/US Super Intelligence Race, 2027 AGI, & The Return of History

Chatted with my friend [Leopold Aschenbrenner] (https://www.forourposterity.com/) on the trillion dollar nationalized cluster, CCP espionage at AI labs, how unhobblings and scaling can lead to 2027 AGI, dangers of outsourcing clusters to Middle East, leaving OpenAI, and situational awareness. Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/zdbVtZIn9IM) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/leopold-aschenbrenner-china-us-super-intelligence-race/id1516093381?i=1000657821539) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/5NQFPblNw8ewxKolIDpiYN?si=6NaTHAugT2SxZrspW3lziw) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/145136502/transcript) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Follow [Leopold on Twitter] (https://x.com/leopoldasch) . Timestamps (00:00:00) – The trillion-dollar cluster and unhobbling (00:20:31) – AI 2028: The return of history (00:40:26) – Espionage & American AI superiority (01:08:20) – Geopolitical implications of AI (01:31:23) – State-led vs. private-led AI (02:12:23) – Becoming Valedictorian of Columbia at 19 (02:30:35) – What happened at OpenAI (02:45:11) – Accelerating AI research progress (03:25:58) – Alignment (03:41:26) – On Germany, and understanding foreign perspectives (03:57:04) – Dwarkesh’s immigration story and path to the podcast (04:07:58) – Launching an AGI hedge fund (04:19:14) – Lessons from WWII (04:29:08) – Coda: Frederick the Great Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

04 Jun 2024

4 HR 31 MINS

4:31:18

04 Jun 2024

#68

John Schulman (OpenAI Cofounder) - Reasoning, RLHF, & Plan for 2027 AGI

Chatted with John Schulman (cofounded OpenAI and led ChatGPT creation) on how posttraining tames the shoggoth, and the nature of the progress to come... Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/Wo95ob_s_NI) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/john-schulman-openai-cofounder-reasoning-rlhf-plan/id1516093381?i=1000655679622) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/1ivzHH9RWciXe4O1rKtldf?si=V6wkPrBsQpi15Yz4qz3UHw) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/john-schulman) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Pre-training, post-training, and future capabilities (00:16:57) - Plan for AGI 2025 (00:29:19) - Teaching models to reason (00:40:50) - The Road to ChatGPT (00:52:13) - What makes for a good RL researcher? (01:00:58) - Keeping humans in the loop (01:15:15) - State of research, plateaus, and moats Sponsors If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, fill out this [form] (https://airtable.com/appxGOvFLDLP5dlzv/pagFVrbHRohW6F2bZ/form) . * Your DNA shapes everything about you. Want to know how? Take 10% off our Premium DNA kit with code DWARKESH at [mynucleus.com] (http://mynucleus.com/) . * [CommandBar] (https://commandbar.com/) is an AI user assistant that any software product can embed to non-annoyingly assist, support, and unleash their users. Used by forward-thinking CX, product, growth, and marketing teams. Learn more at [commandbar.com] (http://commandbar.com/) . Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

15 May 2024

1 HR 36 MINS

1:36:30

15 May 2024

#67

Mark Zuckerberg - Llama 3, Open Sourcing $10b Models, & Caesar Augustus

Mark Zuckerberg on: - Llama 3 - open sourcing towards AGI - custom silicon, synthetic data, & energy constraints on scaling - Caesar Augustus, intelligence explosion, bioweapons, $10b models, & much more Enjoy! Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/bc6uFV9CJGg) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mark-zuckerberg-llama-3-open-sourcing-%2410b-models-caeser/id1516093381?i=1000652877239) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/6Lbsk4HtQZfkJ4dZjh7E7k?si=GOqj7hUdSaWSgi7ULWXjMA) , or any other podcast platform. Human edited transcript with helpful links [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/143705335/transcript) . Timestamps (00:00:00) - Llama 3 (00:08:32) - Coding on path to AGI (00:25:24) - Energy bottlenecks (00:33:20) - Is AI the most important technology ever? (00:37:21) - Dangers of open source (00:53:57) - Caesar Augustus and metaverse (01:04:53) - Open sourcing the $10b model & custom silicon (01:15:19) - Zuck as CEO of Google+ Sponsors If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, fill out this [form] (https://airtable.com/appxGOvFLDLP5dlzv/pagFVrbHRohW6F2bZ/form) . * This episode is brought to you by [Stripe] (https://stripe.com/) , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Learn more at [stripe.com] (http://stripe.com) . * [V7 Go] (https://www.v7labs.com/go?utm_campaign=Dwarkesh%20Podcast%20Newsletter&utm_source=Dwarkesh-Podcast&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_term=Paid-Email) is a tool to automate multimodal tasks using GenAI, reliably and at scale. Use code DWARKESH20 for 20% off on the pro plan. Learn more [here] (https://www.v7labs.com/go?utm_campaign=Dwarkesh%20Podcast%20Newsletter&utm_source=Dwarkesh-Podcast&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_term=Paid-Email) . * [CommandBar] (https://commandbar.com) is an AI user assistant that any software product can embed to non-annoyingly assist, support, and unleash their users. Used by forward-thinking CX, product, growth, and marketing teams. Learn more at [commandbar.com] (http://commandbar.com) . Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

18 Apr 2024

1 HR 17 MINS

1:17:54

18 Apr 2024

#66

Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken - How to Build & Understand GPT-7's Mind

Had so much fun chatting with my good friends Trenton Bricken and Sholto Douglas on the podcast. No way to summarize it, except: This is the best context dump out there on how LLMs are trained, what capabilities they're likely to soon have, and what exactly is going on inside them. You would be shocked how much of what I know about this field, I've learned just from talking with them. To the extent that you've enjoyed my other AI interviews, now you know why. So excited to put this out. Enjoy! I certainly did :) Watch on [YouTube] (https://www.youtube.com/DwarkeshPatel) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sholto-douglas-trenton-bricken-how-to-build-understand/id1516093381?i=1000650748087) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/2dtDauiE4v8ldNRqPFq0uP?si=7S4n69QuTjeYz0lZwW4xIw) , or any other podcast platform. There's a [transcript] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/143040987/transcript) with links to all the papers the boys were throwing down - may help you follow along. Follow [Trenton] (https://twitter.com/TrentonBricken) and [Sholto] (https://twitter.com/_sholtodouglas) on Twitter. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Long contexts (00:16:12) - Intelligence is just associations (00:32:35) - Intelligence explosion & great researchers (01:06:52) - Superposition & secret communication (01:22:34) - Agents & true reasoning (01:34:40) - How Sholto & Trenton got into AI research (02:07:16) - Are feature spaces the wrong way to think about intelligence? (02:21:12) - Will interp actually work on superhuman models (02:45:05) - Sholto’s technical challenge for the audience (03:03:57) - Rapid fire Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

28 Mar 2024

3 HR 12 MINS

3:12:21

28 Mar 2024

#65

Demis Hassabis - Scaling, Superhuman AIs, AlphaZero atop LLMs, Rogue Nations Threat

Here is my episode with Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind We discuss: * Why scaling is an artform * Adding search, planning, & AlphaZero type training atop LLMs * Making sure rogue nations can't steal weights * The right way to align superhuman AIs and do an intelligence explosion Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/qTogNUV3CAI) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/demis-hassabis-scaling-superhuman-ais-alphazero-atop/id1516093381?i=1000647410338) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/6SWbwjYPs5WevIoCCiSByS?si=nCVFSRr7QGGI_STgbrOBDA) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/142112869/transcript) . Timestamps (0:00:00) - Nature of intelligence (0:05:56) - RL atop LLMs (0:16:31) - Scaling and alignment (0:24:13) - Timelines and intelligence explosion (0:28:42) - Gemini training (0:35:30) - Governance of superhuman AIs (0:40:42) - Safety, open source, and security of weights (0:47:00) - Multimodal and further progress (0:54:18) - Inside Google DeepMind Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

28 Feb 2024

1 HR 01 MINS

1:01:34

28 Feb 2024

#64

Patrick Collison (Stripe CEO) - Craft, Beauty, & The Future of Payments

We discuss: * what it takes to process $1 trillion/year * how to build multi-decade APIs, companies, and relationships * what's next for Stripe (increasing the GDP of the internet is quite an open ended prompt, and the Collison brothers are just getting started). Plus the amazing stuff they're doing at [Arc Institute] (https://arcinstitute.org/) , the financial infrastructure for AI agents, playing devil's advocate against progress studies, and much more. Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/WU-lBOAS1VQ) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-collison-stripe-ceo-craft-beauty-the-future/id1516093381?i=1000646268840) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/0CN45zb7saXUjlVuUtmbEZ?si=kHwGCph2Sg2M9w5HSglzGw) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1760342775193809154) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Advice for 20-30 year olds (00:12:12) - Progress studies (00:22:21) - Arc Institute (00:34:27) - AI & Fast Grants (00:43:46) - Stripe history (00:55:44) - Stripe Climate (01:01:39) - Beauty & APIs (01:11:51) - Financial innards (01:28:16) - Stripe culture & future (01:41:56) - Virtues of big businesses (01:51:41) - John Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

21 Feb 2024

1 HR 54 MINS

1:54:47

21 Feb 2024

#63

Tyler Cowen - Hayek, Keynes, & Smith on AI, Animal Spirits, Anarchy, & Growth

It was a great pleasure speaking with Tyler Cowen for the 3rd time. We discussed GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter?, especially in the context of how the insights of Hayek, Keynes, Smith, and other great economists help us make sense of AI, growth, animal spirits, prediction markets, alignment, central planning, and much more. The topics covered in this episode are too many to summarize. Hope you enjoy! Watch on [YouTube] (https://youtu.be/EY2nbAVZB-k) . Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lunar-society/id1516093381) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF) , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript [here] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/tyler-cowen-3) . Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (0:00:00) - John Maynard Keynes (00:17:16) - Controversy (00:25:02) - Fredrick von Hayek (00:47:41) - John Stuart Mill (00:52:41) - Adam Smith (00:58:31) - Coase, Schelling, & George (01:08:07) - Anarchy (01:13:16) - Cheap WMDs (01:23:18) - Technocracy & political philosophy (01:34:16) - AI & Scaling Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

31 Jan 2024

1 HR 42 MINS

1:42:22

31 Jan 2024

#62

Lessons from The Years of Lyndon Johnson by Robert Caro [Narration]

This is a narration of my blog post, [Lessons from The Years of Lyndon Johnson by Robert Caro] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/lyndon-johnson) . You read the full post here: [https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/lyndon-johnson] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/lyndon-johnson) Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lessons-from-the-years-of-lyndon-johnson-by-robert/id1516093381?i=1000642649344) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/3wSHLaZil0if98icmsJ3uJ?si=dnVwiZHTQmquUHT9Y80agA) , or any other podcast platform. Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future posts and episodes. Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

23 Jan 2024

36 MINS

36:32

23 Jan 2024

#61

Will scaling work? [Narration]

This is a narration of my blog post, [Will scaling work?] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/will-scaling-work) . You read the full post here: [https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/will-scaling-work] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/will-scaling-work) Listen on [Apple Podcasts] (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/will-scaling-work-narration/id1516093381?i=1000642235036) , [Spotify] (https://open.spotify.com/episode/2pAQvLl0h9KBcCwUPT7Ick?si=u5MhSvneQOGAllQJab8zkQ) , or any other podcast platform. Follow [me on Twitter] (https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp) for updates on future posts and episodes. Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at [www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe] (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4) ... Read more

19 Jan 2024

25 MINS

25:43

19 Jan 2024

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#81