David and Helen talk to Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor of the Economist, about what Vladimir Putin hopes&nbsp;to get out of the Ukraine crisis and what anyone can do to stop him.&nbsp;Is some sort of invasion inevitable?&nbsp;Is Russia’s goal to sow dissent or to achieve regime change?&nbsp;What leverage does the rest of world have over Putin&nbsp;and his allies?&nbsp;Plus we explore where the roots of the crisis lie: in 2014, in the end of the Cold War, or even earlier still?Talking Points:&nbsp;What does Putin want from Ukraine?&nbsp;<ul><li>He wants to stop Ukraine’s westward shift, which is about more than NATO.&nbsp;</li><li>Ukraine was probably not ever going to join NATO. In that regard, Putin already has what he wants.</li><li>What else is he upset about? Britain is building a naval base on the Sea of Azov. Britain and the UK are training Ukrainian troops. Weapons are flowing in, too.&nbsp;</li><li>Putin worries about Ukraine becoming a more militarily and economically capable actor.&nbsp;</li></ul>What would Putin count as a success in the current crisis?&nbsp;<ul><li>Logistically speaking, Putin could stay there for months. But he has troops from the Eastern military district there, who can’t. And the weather will change after March.&nbsp;</li><li>Perhaps the biggest problem is psychological: backing down would look like giving in.&nbsp;</li><li>Does Russia want regime change?</li></ul>Kiev seems less convinced about the imminence of an invasion.<ul><li>Are they deluded?&nbsp;</li><li>They definitely want to avoid panic, especially economic panic.&nbsp;</li></ul>What is different today from 2014?&nbsp;<ul><li>Ukraine is in an even worse economic position.&nbsp;</li><li>Ukraine is a transit gas state; Putin has been trying to end that for a long time, and he is getting close with the near completion of Nordstream.</li><li>Another difference is America’s position in the world.&nbsp;</li></ul>NATO allies should still feel reasonably secure.<ul><li>But in middle areas, such as Ukraine, or the countries in central Asia, things are less certain.</li></ul>Mentioned in this Episode:&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/01/31/how-big-is-russias-military-build-up-around-ukraine" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Shashank’s latest for the Economist: How big is Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/the-biden-administrations-global-posture-review" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">More on Biden’s global posture review</a></li><li><a href="https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/86304" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">An interview with Dmitri Trenin: are we on the brink of war?</a></li></ul>Further Learning:&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2020/217-trump-vs-iran-is-it-for-real" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Our last episode with Shashank</a></li><li><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/26/ukraine-missile-russia-baltics-biden/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">More on javelin missiles in Ukraine</a></li><li><a href="https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85749" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">More on the Russia-Belarus integration</a></li></ul>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: <a href="http://lrb.co.uk/talking" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">lrb.co.uk/talking</a><hr> See <a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'>acast.com/privacy</a> for privacy and opt-out information. Become a member at <a target="_blank" rel="payment" href="https://plus.acast.com/s/talkingpolitics">https://plus.acast.com/s/talkingpolitics</a>.

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