In his third appearance on Conversations with Tyler, Nate Silver looks back at past predictions, weighs how academic ideas such as expected utility theory fare in practice, and examines the world of sports through the lens of risk and prediction. Tyler and Nate dive into expected utility theory and random Nash equilibria in poker, whether Silver's tell-reading abilities transfer to real-world situations like NBA games, why academic writing has disappointed him, his move from atheism to agnosticism, the meta-rationality of risk-taking, electoral systems and their flaws, 2028 presidential candidates,  why he thinks superforecasters will continue to outperform AI for the next decade, why more athletes haven't come out as gay, redesigning the NBA, what mentors he needs now, the cultural and psychological peculiarities of Bay area intellectual communities, why Canada can't win a Stanley Cup, the politics of immigration in Europe and America, what he'll work on next, and more. Read a <a href= "https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/nate-silver-3/">full transcript</a> enhanced with helpful links, or watch the <a href="https://youtu.be/EEnB4jS82T0">full video</a> on the new dedicated Conversations with Tyler channel. Recorded July 23rd, 2025. Help keep the show ad free by <a href= "https://mercatus.donorsupport.co/page/podcastgift?utm_source=cwt+podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=shownotes"> donating</a> today! Other ways to connect <ul> <li class="p1" style= "font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> Follow us on <a href= "https://twitter.com/cowenconvos">X</a> and <a href= "https://www.instagram.com/cowenconvos/?hl=en">Instagram</a></li> <li class="p1" style= "font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> Follow <a href="https://twitter.com/tylercowen">Tyler</a> on X</li> <li class="p1" style= "font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> Follow <a href="https://x.com/NateSilver538">Nate</a> on X</li> <li style= "font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> <a class="c-link" href="https://mercatus.tfaforms.net/5060931" target="_blank" rel= "noopener" data-stringify-link="https://www.tfaforms.com/5060931" data-sk="tooltip_parent">Sign up for our newsletter</a></li> <li style= "font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> Join our <a href= "https://discord.gg/JAVWP7vTxt">Discord</a></li> <li class="p1" style= "font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> Email us: <a class="c-link" tabindex="-1" href= "mailto:cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu" target="_blank" rel= "noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link= "mailto:cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu" data-sk="tooltip_parent" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-remove-tab-index= "true">cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu</a></li> <li class="p1" style= "font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts <a href= "https://www.mercatus.org/podcasts">here</a>.</li> </ul>

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