Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get the Fed to cut this week and signal two more by year-end, even if not the start of a more aggressive easing cycle. Beneath the surface, 4-6 quarters of weak job growth with trend-like GDP growth raises questions about the structure of the economy while also adding to near-term vulnerabilities.
 
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
 
This podcast was recorded on 19 September 2025. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit <a href='http://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures'>www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures</a> for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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