Years of equity gains has wealth effect bolstering spend
Aggregate consumer data remains solid despite signs of a slowdown in labor markets.  Declining labor supply accounts for some of the labor weakness but other metrics, including the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, suggest softness in demand as well. We examine why consumption has held up despite these signs of weakness and part of it comes down to the wealth effect, which has boosted some consumers at a time that others have been challenged by continued cost increases and a slowdown in wage growth.  We also discuss the sources that investors can use for economic data given that Federal data is currently limited.  And get into some of the risks to spending, particularly since equities have been unusually strong over the last several years, leading to questions around whether weak or stagnant equities could remove a key support for consumption.  Could announced and future capex investments in the US spark renewed demand for labor?  We address this as well, and so far, our US Economics team isn't holding its breath.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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