David and Tamler talk about two famous puzzles that for different reasons have bedeviled the rationalist community – The Monty Hall Problem and Newcomb’s “paradox.” Why is it so hard for people to see that a 66% chance of winning a car is better than a 33% chance? Why do famous mathematicians struggle with this problem? And David and Tamler split on the Newcomb case – can you guess which one of us is the one boxer? Plus since we’re basically a TV recap podcast now, some thoughts on White Lotus Season 3.  <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13406094/">The White Lotus</a> [imdb.com] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem">Monty Hall Problem</a> [wikipedia.org] <a href= "https://youtu.be/7u6kFlWZOWg?si=dz1V6A8a_P1Zbamz">Numberphile on the Monty Hall Problem</a> [youtube.com] <a href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox">Newcomb's "Paradox"</a> [wikipedia.org] Nozick, R. (1969). <a href= "https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-017-1466-2_7">Newcomb’s problem and two principles of choice.</a> In Essays in honor of carl g. hempel: A tribute on the occasion of his sixty-fifth birthday (pp. 114-146). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.

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