My guest today is <a href="https://x.com/GavinSBaker">Gavin Baker</a>, founding partner and CIO of Atreides Management, and this is our sixth conversation.
The central theme is watts and wafers, the two physical constraints that in Gavin's view will dictate the next phase of AI.
On power, he thinks the near-term shortage starts to ease in 2027 and 2028 as new sources of energy come online, and that orbital compute solves it in the long term.
On wafers, he explains what is different this time from the dotcom bubble and why TSMC’s capacity decisions may be the single most important variable to watch.
We also discuss Elon’s Terrafab, the disaggregation of GPUs, the role of new chip companies, and whether the economic value of AI will keep accruing to frontier models.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page <a href="https://colossus.com/episode/watts-and-wafers/">⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠</a>. 
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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (<a href="https://thepodcastconsultant.com/">⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠</a>).
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best
(00:02:29) Gavin Baker Intro
(00:03:32) Anthropic's Record ARR Growth
(00:11:49) Should OpenAI and Anthropic Raise at a Much Higher Valuation?
(00:13:23) How Elon Preserves Investor Trust
(00:14:00) Watts & Wafers
(00:15:45) Data Centers in Space Explained
(00:20:51) Orbital Compute’s Impact on Terrestrial Data Centers
(00:26:24) TSMC Supply Discipline & Bubble Risk
(00:30:50) Demand for Frontier Tokens & The Bitter Lesson
(00:35:33) Continual Learning & Memory
(00:40:01) New Chip Companies & Startups
(00:42:49) Prefill vs. Decode Disaggregation
(00:48:40) AI-Native Founders: Different & Hard
(00:51:27) Token Path & Application Layer
(00:56:13) How Gavin Uses AI in Atreides
(01:00:06) Signs of a Diversity Breakdown
(01:05:42) Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft
(01:11:42) Broader Knock-On Effects of AI

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