That’s the question at the heart of a battle between Kalshi and state gambling regulators. As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them. (Part two of <a href="https://freakonomics.com/the-price-of-prediction/" rel="noopener noreferrer">a two-part series</a>.)&nbsp;&nbsp;<ul><li>SOURCES:<ul><li><a href="https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/gary-gensler" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gary Gensler</a>, former chair of the S.E.C. and the C.F.T.C.</li><li><a href="https://economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson" rel="noopener noreferrer">Robin Hanson</a>, professor of economics at George Mason University.</li><li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicole-kagan/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nicole Kagan</a>, head of research at Kalshi.</li><li><a href="https://news.kalshi.com/p/tarek-mansour" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tarek Mansour</a>, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.</li></ul></li></ul>&nbsp;<ul><li>RESOURCES:<ul><li>"<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jopp.12008" rel="noopener noreferrer">Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?</a>" by Robin Hanson (Journal of Political Philosophy, 2013).</li></ul></li></ul>&nbsp;<ul><li>EXTRAS:<ul><li>"<a href="https://freakonomics.com/podcast/are-prediction-markets-the-best-forecasting-tool-ever-or-just-another-casino/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?</a>" by Freakonomics Radio (2026).</li><li>"<a href="https://freakonomics.com/podcast/he-helped-clean-up-the-last-crash-does-he-see-another-one-coming/" rel="noopener noreferrer">He Helped Clean Up the Last Crash. Does He See Another One Coming?</a>" by Freakonomics Radio (2026).</li><li>"<a href="https://freakonomics.com/podcast/the-economics-of-sports-gambling/" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Economics of Sports Gambling</a>," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).</li></ul></li></ul> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See <a href="https://pcm.adswizz.com">pcm.adswizz.com</a> for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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