We examine what our forecast model <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2026/04/21/our-midterms-forecast-predicts-pain-for-donald-trump?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">predicts so far</a>—and consider what might change its confident prediction for one house of Congress and toss-up call for the other. Our correspondent sits down with Steve Reich, a pioneering classical composer who is nearing his 90th birthday. And the surprising reason why firstborns <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2026/04/16/why-eldest-siblings-are-brainier?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">tend to have</a> more-successful lives.Additional music courtesy of Steve Reich (Nonesuch Records), Erik Hall (Western Vinyl)Guests and host:<ul><li>Dan Rosenheck, data editor</li><li>Jon Fasman, senior culture correspondent</li><li>Ainslie Johnstone, data journalist</li><li>Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”</li></ul>Topics covered:&nbsp;<ul><li>American elections, Congress, polling, gerrymandering</li><li>Steve Reich, contemporary classical music</li><li>birth order, statistics</li></ul>Get a world of insights by <a href="https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plus" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">subscribing to Economist Podcasts+</a>. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our <a href="https://myaccount.economist.com/s/article/What-is-Economist-Podcasts" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">FAQs page</a> or watch <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gczo71bg1uY" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">our video</a> explaining how to link your account.

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Bringing the House down: our American midterms model

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