As black rain falls from the smoke-choked skies of Tehran, the US and Israel continue their war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. From the start, Trump officials have seemed only to disagree on both the murky rationale and the objectives of their mission. 
Meanwhile, the Military Religious Freedom Foundation has been flooded with reports of commanding officers rallying their troops with apocalyptic pep talks in which Trump has been anointed by Jesus to kick-off Armageddon. This should come as no surprise, given that Sec of Def Pete Hegseth, has been holding Christian Nationalist prayer and worship services in the Pentagon since last May. 
Beyond the obviousness of this religious politics, Matthew looks at how Canadian PM, Mark Carney, supports Trump, and this war, while pretending not to, using deceptive language tricks that borrow from religion to blur the line between strength and values, power and principle. 
But, hey, if you want to distract yourself from all this, Polymarket is a wonderful place to bet on who’s going to be bombed next. Derek breaks down how prediction markets have become a massively lucrative Rorschach-portrait of our times.
Show Notes
<a href="https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for">Troops Told Iran War is “Armageddon”</a>
<a href="https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/pentagon-confirms-hegseth-joined">Hegseth Joined Drollinger’s White House Bible Study</a>
<a href="https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/pentagon-confirms-hegseth-joined">Hegseth Hosts Christian Nationalist Doug Wilson at Pentagon Religious Service</a>
<a href="https://www.webopedia.com/crypto/learn/history-prediction-markets/">The History of Prediction Markets: From Ancient Oracles to Blockchain Forecasting</a>
<a href="https://www.mexc.com/news/62510">A brief history of prediction markets: from papal elections to Polymarket</a>
<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/3-economists-built-model-paved-way-kalshi-polymarket-rcna257094">Three economists grabbed a beer. A multibillion-dollar industry was born.</a>
<a href="https://wifpr.wharton.upenn.edu/blog/a-primer-on-prediction-markets/">A Primer on Prediction Markets</a>
<a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2026/0207/prediction-markets-super-bowl-sports-betting">Prediction markets are booming. Why are their ads banned from the Super Bowl?</a>
<a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/47337056/scandals-prediction-markets-2025-turning-point-sports-betting">Scandals, prediction markets: Is 2025 a turning point for sports betting?</a>
<a href="https://futurism.com/future-society/prediction-markets-analysis">An Analysis Just Found Something Extremely Unflattering About What Happens to Users of Prediction Markets</a>
<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-administration-backs-kalshi-and-polymarket-as-states-move-to-ban-prediction-markets">Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets</a>
<a href="https://newrepublic.com/post/206672/trump-cftc-stop-states-regulating-prediction-markets-polymarket-kalshi">Trump’s CFTC Tries to Stop States From Regulating Prediction Markets</a>
<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/iran-bets-prediction-markets-draw-scrutiny-suspected-insiders-11603293">Iran Bets on Prediction Markets Draw Scrutiny: ‘Suspected Insiders’</a>
<a href="https://www.404media.co/polymarket-pulls-bet-on-nuclear-detonation-in-2026/">Polymarket Pulls Bet on Nuclear Detonation in 2026</a>
<a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/03/04/trump-to-meet-arms-executives-friday-in-push-to-boost-weapon-supplies">Trump to meet arms executives Friday in push to boost weapon supplies</a> 
<a href="https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-iran-regime-change-democrats-chuck-schumer-midterms">Trump Privately Dreams of Iran Regime Change Glory as Democrats Cynically Weigh Political Benefits of War</a> 
<a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/speeches/2026/01/20/principled-and-pragmatic-canadas-path-prime-minister-carney-addresses">“Principled and pragmatic: Canada’s path” Prime Minister Carney addresses the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting</a> Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

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