For decades, teams have tried (and mostly failed) to predict which college quarterbacks will thrive in the pros. Is the science finally catching up? Stephen Dubner speaks with a scout, a psychologist, a data warrior, and a Hall of Fame quarterback who nobody wanted.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<ul><li>SOURCES:<ul><li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/scottgoldmanphd/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Scott Goldman</a>, sports psychologist, owner of the Athletic Intelligence Quotient.</li><li><a href="https://x.com/Dan_Hatman?lang=en" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dan Hatman</a>, director of scouting development at the Scouting Academy.</li><li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephensmithsports/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Stephen Smith</a>, founder and C.E.O. of Kitman Labs.</li><li><a href="https://www.nfl.com/author/kurt-warner-0ap3000001037948" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kurt Warner</a>, Hall-of-Fame quarterback, N.F.L. Network analyst.</li></ul></li></ul>&nbsp;<ul><li>RESOURCES:<ul><li>"<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1540498/full" rel="noopener noreferrer">Head in the game: the impact of cognitive abilities on performance of National Football League quarterbacks</a>," by R. Thomas Boone, Nicholas Zambrotta, Andrew Manocchio, and James Bowman (Frontiers in Psychology, 2025).</li><li>"<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220033161_The_Quarterback_Prediction_Problem_Forecasting_the_Performance_of_College_Quarterbacks_Selected_in_the_NFL_Draft" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Quarterback Prediction Problem: Forecasting the Performance of College Quarterbacks Selected in the NFL Draft</a>," by Julian Wolfson, Vittorio Addona, Robert Schmicker (Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2011).</li></ul></li></ul>&nbsp;<ul><li>EXTRAS:<ul><li>"<a href="https://freakonomics.com/podcast/the-merger-you-never-knew-you-wanted/" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Merger You Never Knew You Wanted</a>," by Freakonomics Radio (2025).</li><li>"<a href="https://freakonomics.com/podcast-tag/the-rooney-rule/" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Rooney Rule</a>," series by Freakonomics Radio (2024).</li></ul></li></ul> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See <a href="https://pcm.adswizz.com">pcm.adswizz.com</a> for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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686. Why Is It So Hard to Find an NFL Quarterback?

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