The Trafalgar Group’s founder and chief pollster, Robert Cahaly, returns to The Prediction Trade to walk through the 2022 midterms. Cahaly talks about his record—a winner prediction ratio of nearly 92%—and explains how his company approaches polling differently. He shares predictions for several midterm nominations, discusses how a Trump endorsement can flip a race, and contemplates the probability of Joe Biden or Kamala Harris leading the Democratic ticket in 2024.

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