Today’s guest is Antti Ilmanen, Global Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management.
In today’s episode, Antti discusses the complexities of investment returns, the importance of understanding both objective and subjective expectations, and the dangers of relying on past performance as a guide for future investments. We explore the current state of the US market, the role of diversifiers in portfolios, and the behavioral biases that affect investor decisions. Antti also contrasts the behaviors of bond investors, which tend to be more contrarian, and equity investors, which tend to extrapolate.
(0:00) Starts
(1:13) Humility in forecasting market expectations
(8:26) Comparing institutional and retail investor behavior
(24:33) Sentiment analysis in markets
(36:18) Bond vs. equity investor mindsets
(48:11) Liquid vs. illiquid alternative investments
(56:26) The diversification benefits of trend following
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For detailed show notes, click <a href="https://www.themebfabershow.com/episodes/uuhUSVrs1mS">here</a>
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Past guests include <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2017/02/08/10017/">Ed Thorp</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2021/08/04/e337-richard-thaler/">Richard Thaler</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2021/02/08/episode-286-jeremy-grantham-gmo-what-day-is-the-highest-level-of-optimism-its-the-day-the-market-hits-the-peak/">Jeremy Grantham</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2020/10/28/episode-260-joel-greenblatt-gotham-asset-management-nine-out-of-ten-families-in-the-top-fifth-of-the-income-chain-have-retirement-savings-nine-in-ten-in-the-bottom-fifth-have-none/">Joel Greenblatt</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2019/08/28/episode-172-cam-harvey-this-is-a-time-of-considerable-risk-of-a-drawdown/">Campbell Harvey</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2022/03/30/403-ivy-zelman/">Ivy Zelman</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2021/05/12/e310-kathryn-kaminski/">Kathryn Kaminski</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2017/08/30/episode-69-jason-calacanis-little-secret-way-dark-art-becoming-truly-wealthy-massive-wealth/">Jason Calacanis</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2022/01/31/e387-whitney-baker/">Whitney Baker,</a> <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2019/05/10/episode-155-aswath-damodaran-they-uber-and-the-ride-sharing-companies-collectively-have-disrupted-this-businessthats-the-good-news-the-bad-news-is-i-dont-thin/">Aswath Damodaran</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2018/10/03/episode-124-howard-marks-its-not-what-you-buy-its-what-you-pay-for-it-that-determines-whether-something-is-a-good-investment/">Howard Marks</a>, <a href="https://mebfaber.com/2018/10/10/episode-125-tom-barton-the-biggest-problem-investors-have-is-things-changeand-they-dont-change/">Tom Barton</a>, and many more. 
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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out <a href="https://mebfaber.com/mebs-deals/">here</a>! 
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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (<a href="https://thepodcastconsultant.com/">https://thepodcastconsultant.com</a>).
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