From betting apps to AI models, prediction has become big business. This hour, why we're so drawn to certainty, and what happens when we mistake forecasts for facts. Guests include professor Brendan Dwyer, philosopher Carissa Véliz, and journalist Simone Stolzoff. TED Radio Hour+ listeners now get access to bonus episodes, with more ideas from TED speakers and deeper conversations with Manoush. By signing up for Plus, you directly support our work and public media, so all your episodes (like this one!) come to you without sponsor breaks. Learn more at<a href="http://plus.npr.org/ted"target="_blank" > plus.npr.org/ted</a>. See <a href="https://pcm.adswizz.com">pcm.adswizz.com</a> for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. <a href="https://www.npr.org/about-npr/179878450/privacy-policy">NPR Privacy Policy</a>

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