Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.
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Transcript:
<a href="https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript">https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript</a>
CONTACT LEX:
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Other &#8211; other ways to get in touch: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/contact">https://lexfridman.com/contact</a>
EPISODE LINKS:
Dylan&#8217;s X: <a href="https://x.com/dylan522p">https://x.com/dylan522p</a>
SemiAnalysis: <a href="https://semianalysis.com/">https://semianalysis.com/</a>
Nathan&#8217;s X: <a href="https://x.com/natolambert">https://x.com/natolambert</a>
Nathan&#8217;s Blog: <a href="https://www.interconnects.ai/">https://www.interconnects.ai/</a>
Nathan&#8217;s Podcast: <a href="https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast">https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast</a>
Nathan&#8217;s Website: <a href="https://www.natolambert.com/">https://www.natolambert.com/</a>
Nathan&#8217;s YouTube: <a href="https://youtube.com/@natolambert">https://youtube.com/@natolambert</a>
Nathan&#8217;s Book: <a href="https://rlhfbook.com/">https://rlhfbook.com/</a>
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OUTLINE:
(00:00) &#8211; Introduction
(13:28) &#8211; DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3
(35:02) &#8211; Low cost of training
(1:01:19) &#8211; DeepSeek compute cluster
(1:08:52) &#8211; Export controls on GPUs to China
(1:19:10) &#8211; AGI timeline
(1:28:35) &#8211; China&#8217;s manufacturing capacity
(1:36:30) &#8211; Cold war with China
(1:41:00) &#8211; TSMC and Taiwan
(2:04:38) &#8211; Best GPUs for AI
(2:19:30) &#8211; Why DeepSeek is so cheap
(2:32:49) &#8211; Espionage
(2:41:52) &#8211; Censorship
(2:54:46) &#8211; Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL
(3:05:17) &#8211; OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1
(3:24:25) &#8211; NVIDIA
(3:28:53) &#8211; GPU smuggling
(3:35:30) &#8211; DeepSeek training on OpenAI data
(3:45:59) &#8211; AI megaclusters
(4:21:21) &#8211; Who wins the race to AGI?
(4:31:34) &#8211; AI agents
(4:40:16) &#8211; Programming and AI
(4:47:43) &#8211; Open source
(4:56:55) &#8211; Stargate
(5:04:24) &#8211; Future of AI

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#459 – DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

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