On this episode of The Futures Rundown, host Mark Longo welcomes back Brett Friedman of Winhall Risk Analytics and OptionMetrics for a deep dive into one of the strangest stories in the futures markets: crude oil's surprisingly underwhelming response to a major geopolitical conflict. With dire supply warnings and plenty of doom-and-gloom predictions, many expected crude to explode higher. Instead, the rally has repeatedly struggled to live up to the hype. Brett compares the current environment with previous oil-market disruptions, including the historic volatility of 2020, and explains why this latest episode hasn't come close to matching those extremes. We also discuss: <ul data-spread="false"> <li>Why crude oil hasn't behaved the way many fundamental analysts expected</li> <li>The unusual volatility picture in WTI</li> <li>What's driving heating oil and gasoline</li> <li>Why gold and silver have fallen out of the market spotlight</li> <li>The return of the AI trade and the "most hated" equity rally</li> <li>What's happening in rates and the Fed-watching game</li> <li>Natural gas and the strange predictability of seasonal trading</li> <li>The steepening VIX futures curve</li> <li>Why palladium may have attracted the wrong crowd</li> <li>Whether traders are using the VIX the wrong way</li> <li>And much more</li> </ul>

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The Futures Rundown 87: The Most Disappointing Crude Rally Ever?

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