The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a <a href="https://freakonomics.com/the-price-of-prediction/" rel="noopener noreferrer">two-part series</a>.)&nbsp;<ul><li>SOURCES:<ul><li><a href="https://economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson" rel="noopener noreferrer">Robin Hanson</a>, professor of economics at George Mason University.</li><li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicole-kagan/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nicole Kagan</a>, head of research at Kalshi.</li><li><a href="https://news.kalshi.com/p/tarek-mansour" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tarek Mansour</a>, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.</li></ul></li></ul>&nbsp;<ul><li>RESOURCE:<ul><li>"<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026010pap.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets</a>," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026).</li><li>"<a href="https://research.kalshi.com/articles/mamdani-primary-victory" rel="noopener noreferrer">Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation</a>," (Kalshi Research, 2026).</li><li>"<a href="https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html" rel="noopener noreferrer">Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs</a>," by Robin Hanson (2000).</li><li>"<a href="https://home.uchicago.edu/~vlima/courses/econ200/spring01/hayek.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Use of Knowledge in Society</a>," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945).</li></ul></li></ul>&nbsp;<ul><li>EXTRAS:<ul><li>"<a href="https://freakonomics.com/podcast/the-economics-of-sports-gambling/" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Economics of Sports Gambling</a>," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).</li><li>"<a href="https://freakonomics.com/podcast/how-to-be-less-terrible-at-predicting-the-future/" rel="noopener noreferrer">How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future</a>," by Freakonomics Radio (2016).</li><li>"<a href="https://freakonomics.com/podcast/the-folly-of-prediction/" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Folly of Prediction</a>," by Freakonomics Radio (2011).</li></ul></li></ul> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See <a href="https://pcm.adswizz.com">pcm.adswizz.com</a> for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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