The S&P 500 index made new highs last week, and results​ from the Q2 US earnings season have been amazing. With 90% of companies having reported, the blended earnings growth (actuals for reported and estimates for companies yet to report) is 11.8%, versus the consensus of 4.9% y/y earnings growth estimated in June. Yet strangely, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day averages has fallen from 80% in early July to 56%. That means a smaller number of stocks are taking the index up today than was the case then. ​We should never take averages​as guaranteed outcomes for future performance. But for what it’s worth, August has historically been a “neutral” month on average, with a return since 1950 of zero. And September is the only month since 1950 with a negative average return.

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