Arthur Hayes, cofounder of BitMex, discusses how he’s trading the Merge, the impact of macroeconomic policy in the markets, his career as a writer, and much more.    Show highlights: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">how crypto is reconfiguring how humans do finance over the internet</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">why Arthur initially thought Ethereum was worthless </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">how NFTs allow users to trade human culture and will unlock trillions of dollars of value</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">why Ethereum doesn’t even need to be deflationary</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">whether other layer 1s can take some market cap from Ethereum</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">why Arthur thinks that a successful Merge is understated and why this is a valid reason for hedging</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">why he thinks an Ethereum proof of work chain won’t succeed and how Arthur will trade ETHPoW</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">why LDO, Lido’s token, is a riskier bet but has more potential gains</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">how he believes the Shanghai upgrade will impact ETH’s price</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">whether the Merge affects BTC’s narrative as digital gold and whether the inflation hedge theory of Bitcoin still holds</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">why Bitcoin is a measure of USD liquidity and why the Fed rates don’t matter as much as everyone thinks</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">whether hedge funds and institutional investors would want to invest in crypto given the high correlation with traditional markets</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">what Arthur believes the impact of a potential US recession would be on the crypto markets </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">why he believes the real economy is not relevant to the financial markets</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">whether algorithmic stablecoins are doomed to fail</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">how the credit cycle works and how it repeats again and again</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Arthur’s method for identifying good projects to invest in</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">how Arthur became such a good writer</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">whether BTC is money and the religious aspect of the Bitcoin culture</li> </ul> Thank you to our sponsors! <a href= "https://crypto.onelink.me/J9Lg/unconfirmedcardearnfeb2021"> Crypto.com</a> <a href="https://avax.network/">Ava Labs</a> <a href= "https://link.chtbl.com/HObAJQDL?sid=unchained">a16z</a>   Arthur: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://twitter.com/CryptoHayes">Twitter</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://cryptohayes.medium.com/">Medium</a> </li> </ul>   Episode Links   Previous Coverage on Unchained: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://unchainedpodcast.com/with-the-merge-will-ethereum-take-over-bitcoins-title-as-digital-gold-ep-389/"> With the Merge, Will Ethereum Take Over Bitcoin’s Title as Digital Gold?</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-kevin-zhou-believes-ethereum-will-have-3-forks-after-the-merge-ep-381/"> Why Kevin Zhou Believes Ethereum Will Have 3 Forks After the Merge</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://unchainedpodcast.com/post-merge-if-lido-becomes-dominant-what-does-that-mean-for-ethereum-ep-372/"> Post-Merge, If Lido Becomes Dominant, What Does That Mean for Ethereum?</a></li> </ul> Arthur’s posts discussed during the show: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://blog.bitmex.com/eth-flexive/">Eth-Flexive</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://blog.bitmex.com/ether-a-double-digit-shitcoin/"> Ether, a double digit shitcoin</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://cryptohayes.medium.com/teach-me-daddy-33e7a66dfe76"> Teach me Daddy</a> (on USD liquidity and Macroeconomics)</li> </ul>   Macroeconomics: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Adam Cochran <a href= "https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1562077260819173378?s=20&t=Jh2DRYu-nr2mRg_4kJEFqA"> on the Fed’s QT</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Pantera Capital’s <a href= "https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/ethereum-tightening-more-than-fed"> newsletter</a></li> </ul>   ETH Trade: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Whether Ethereum’s Merge <a href= "https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/08/22/is-ethereums-merge-priced-in/"> is priced in</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Gauntlet’s <a href= "https://medium.com/gauntlet-networks/gauntlets-view-on-the-merge-7c79e39e4b59"> view on the Merge</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/study-shows-recent-correlation-between-bitcoin-and-stocks-is-temporary"> BTC correlation with stocks</a></li> </ul>   ETH Post-Merge Dynamics: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Cumberland on the <a href= "https://res.cloudinary.com/drw/image/upload/v1661351279/comm-cumberland/uploads/The_Ethereum_Merge_-_Derivative_Market_Opportunities_Changes_to_SupplyDemand_Dynamics_1_zwearq.pdf"> Ethereum dynamics after the merge</a> </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Miles Suter on <a href= "https://twitter.com/milessuter/status/1560070819518234624?s=20&t=qjolzcydMY_nTU__vZNciQ"> the implications of the Merge</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href= "https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/ether-a-new-model-for-money"> The triple point asset</a></li> </ul>

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Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH - Ep. 393

Unchained